Dow finished 14 higher after early selling, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ was off 67 (also above early lows). The MLP index rose 1+ to the 157s & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 392s. Junk bond funds continued to be sold & Treasuries inched higher. Oil climbed in the 61s & gold fell 3 to 1807 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy remains in the throes of the coronavirus pandemic, telling Congress during his semi-annual testimony that the outlook is "highly uncertain," but that it could improve later this year as more Americans are vaccinated. "The path of the economy continues to depend significantly on the course of the virus and the measures undertaken to control its spread," Powell said during the first of his appearance on Capitol Hill. "The resurgence in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in recent months is causing great hardship for millions of Americans and is weighing on economic activity and job creation." The unemployment rate in the US has fallen to 6.3%, but Powell & other top economic officials have pointed to a figure that suggests the jobless rate is actually at 10%. There remain close to 10M out-of-work Americans compared to Feb, before the crisis began. Powell's testimony comes amid fresh concerns that a rise in bond yields & US inflation expectations will cause the central bank to tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected. But he reiterated that policymakers would not raise rates until "labor markets have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time." "The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved," he added. At its most recent meeting in Jan, the Fed held the benchmark federal funds rate at 0%-0.25%, where it has been since mid-Mar, & said would continue to buy at least $120B of bonds each month “until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals." Officials have also pledged to keep rates low, even if inflation gets close to or slightly exceeds the Fed's target range of 2%. Previous projections from the Fed's Dec meeting show that policymakers expect interest rates to remain near zero thru 2023.
Fed's Powell says US economic outlook still 'highly uncertain'
Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, beat quarterly same-store sales estimates,
riding a sustained wave of demand for home improvement goods as the
COVID-19 pandemic drags on. However, its shares fell, after HD warned that it was unable to predict how
consumer spending would evolve this year. "If
the demand environment during the back half of fiscal 2020 were to
persist through fiscal 2021, it would imply flat to slightly positive
comparable sales growth," CFO Richard
McPhail said. Same-store sales jumped 24.5% in Q4, beating estimate for an 18.9% increase. The stock dropped 8.15 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about HD click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HDa_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Home Depot sales jump 25%, consumer spending outlook unclear
Gold futures ended with a modest loss, pulling back a day after a rally in prices to their highest in roughly a week, as investors weighed the first day of monetary-policy testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During the first of 2 days of congressional testimony, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that there are signs that the economy is on the mend from the pandemic, but the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its easy policy in place for some time. Apr gold fell by $2 to settle at $1805 an ounce after touching a high of $1815 — the highest intraday level for a most-active contract since Feb 16. The move followed a surge of 1.7% Mon to mark the metal's loftiest settlement since Feb 12 & the biggest single-session $ & percentage rise since early Jan.
Gold ends lower as the dollar edges up after Powell’s first day of congressional testimony
The US economy is still growing & likely to speed up in the next 6 months, a new survey suggests. The leading economic index rose 0.5% in Jan, following gains of 0.4% in Dec & 0.9% in Nov, the Conference Board said. “While the pace of increase in the U.S. LEI has slowed since mid-2020, January’s gains were broad-based and suggest economic growth should improve gradually over the first half of 2021,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the board. “As the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 accelerates, labor markets and overall growth are likely to continue improving through the rest of this year as well,” he added. Rising stocks, an ebullient housing market & stronger manufacturing production powered the increase in the leading index last month. Companies are preparing for a more robust economy later in the year as more Americans get vaccinated & the pandemic eventually fades.
U.S. economy set to speed up, leading index signals
Oil futures ended mixed, with US prices down a few
pennies & global benchmark Brent crude eking out a fresh 13-month
high. Traders eyed the pace of recovery in Texas energy output in
the wake of last week's winter storms, as well as speculation
surrounding a decision on production by major oil producers next week. On its first full session as a front-month contract, Apr West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3¢ to settle at $61.67 a barrel after trading as high as $63. Apr Brent,
the global benchmark, rose 13¢ to $65.37 a barrel, the highest finish since Jan 2020. Most-active May Brent crude,
which will become the front-month contract after Fri's settlement, rose 12¢ at $64.48 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration will issue its weekly data on US
petroleum supplies later today. The forecast was for a decline of 4.8M barrels in crude
stockpiles last week.
Oil ends mixed as traders eye Texas output recovery and next week’s OPEC+ meetings
Buyers returned in the PM to bring the averages higher, but NAZ still finished in the red & there were more decliners than advancers. Markets have been trending sideways for more than a week while waiting for direction on the relief bill in Congress. That performance is likely to continue until the relief bill is finalized.
Dow Jones Industrials
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