Dow fell 469 with selling into the close, decliners & advancers were even, & NAZ rebounded 72. The MLP index was off 4+ to the 154s & the REIT index fell 4+ to the 383s. Junk bond funds went up & Treasuries remained in heavy demand taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 1.467%. Oil gave back almost 2 to the 61s & gold plunged 49 to 1726 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The decline in Covid-19 cases reported in the US since early Jan may be flattening, a concerning shift as highly transmissible variants threaten to exacerbate infections, the head of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said. “Over the last few weeks, cases and hospital admissions in the United States have been coming down since early January, and deaths have been declining in the past week,” CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said. “But the latest data suggest that these declines may be stalling, potentially leveling off at still a very high number.” The nation is now reporting a daily average of 73K new cases over the last week, a slight uptick compared with a week ago, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The US peaked at close to 250K cases per day in early Jan following the winter holidays. The recent shift may be a sign that new, highly transmissible variants of the coronavirus are beginning to take hold, Walensky said. One variant, known as B.1.1.7 & first found in the UK, is expected to become the predominant strain by mid- to-late Mar, experts have predicted. The B.1.1.7 variant appears to account for roughly 10% of new Covid-19 cases in the US, up from just 1% a few weeks ago, Walensky added. However, some states have more cases of the highly transmissible variant than others. Top US health officials have warned in recent weeks that the variants could reverse the current downward trajectory in infections in the US & delay the nation’s recovery from the pandemic. The head of the federal health agency said states shouldn't begin to lift restrictions on businesses & gatherings given the direction of cases & high level of viral spread. “I want to be clear: Cases, hospital admissions and deaths all remain very high, and the recent shift in the pandemic must be taken extremely seriously,” Walensky said.
CDC director warns recent decline in U.S. Covid cases may have stalled as variants spread
The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus-borne illness
COVID-19 climbed above 113M, amid a flurry of positive
vaccine news & as a regulatory advisory committee gathered to review
Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, vaccine candidate for a possible emergency use
authorization. There are high hopes that the Food & Drug
Administration's (FDA) advisory committee team of experts will vote that the
benefits of JNJ's vaccine outweigh the risks, as it is expected to greatly enhance
the global effort to get jabs in arms. The vaccine is a one-dose
regimen, unlike the ones that have already been granted emergency use
which require 2 doses weeks apart. It also comes without the refrigeration requirements that make administering doses tricky. The FDA said earlier this week that the JNJ dose does not appear to have safety issues. The stock fell 4.75 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about JNJ, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JNJa_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Global COVID cases top 113 million as FDA committee meets to vote on J&J vaccine
The Chicago Business Barometer, a measure of business conditions in
the Chicago region softened to 59.5 in Feb from a strong 63.8
reading in the prior month, according to MNI Market News International. The Jan reading was the highest since Jul 2018. The forecast had expected the index to slip, but
only to 61. Any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. The index, known in market shorthand as the Chicago PMI, is
the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the
closely-watched national ISM data for Feb is released on Mon. The
national ISM index fell to 58.7 in Jan from a revised 60.5 in the
prior month, the 8th straight month the headline index was above the
50% break between expansion & contraction.
Chicago factory performance retreats in February after hitting highest level since 2018
The US trade deficit in goods widened to $83.7B in Jan from a revised $83.2B in the prior month, the Commerce Dept said. It was the 2nd highest gap on record. Imports of goods such as consumer electronics rose 1.1% to $219B in Jan. Goods imports were up 8.2% compared to a year earlier. Exports rose 1.4% to $135B were down 0.7% compared with one year ago. An advanced look at wholesale inventories, meanwhile, showed a 1.3% gain in Jan. And an early look at retail inventories showed that category down 0.6%. Auto inventories fell a sharp 1.4% in the month. A fuller report on the US trade deficit that includes services such as tourism & finance will be issued next week. The US usually has a strong surplus in services because of tourism, but the sector has suffered during the pandemic.
U.S. trade deficit widens slightly in January, second highest on record
Gold futures fell for a 4th straight session to suffer the biggest monthly loss in over 4 years, as a dramatic rise in gov bond yields undercut demand for the precious metal, pulling prices down to their lowest finish since Jun. The metal extended its slide as a perkier $ combined to provide a further drag, with gold for Apr delivery off $46 (2.6%) to settle at $1728 an ounce, the lowest finish since last Jun. Gold based on the most-active contract saw a weekly decline of 2.7% & a loss of 6.6% for the month, which was its largest monthly fall since 2016. Yesterday, the 10-year benchmark Treasury note, touched a yield near 1.54% intraday, compared with 1.34% last Fri. A firmer $ today, with the buck up 0.8% was also weighing on bullion. Vaccine rollouts & hope for a bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic in H2 has been one of the key drivers of the improved outlook for the economy and for the selloff in bonds, with prices falling as yields rise. US data released today showed that the Chicago Business Barometer, a measure of business conditions in the Chicago region, softened to 59.5 in Feb from a strong 63.8 reading in the prior month. However, the final reading of consumer sentiment in Feb inched up to 76.8 points from 76.2 earlier in the month, according to a survey produced by the Univ of Mich.
Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years
Oil futures settled sharply lower, with a rise by the $ & jitters ahead of next week's meeting of OPEC & its allies prompting the US crude benchmark to pull back from a 22-month high. The US contract, however, still gained nearly 18% for the month, to tally a 4th-consecutive monthly climb. OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet on Mar 3 & 4 to discuss production curbs. The elephant in the room is what Saudi Arabia will do with regard to its unilateral output cut of 1M barrels per day in Feb & Mar. The rise in oil prices may stir calls to loosen the curbs, driven in part by fears US shale producers & others will increase output in response to stronger prices and take market share from OPEC+ members. West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr fell $2.03 (3.2%) to settle at $61.50 a barrel, after posting its highest front-month close since May 1, 2019 yesterday. Prices ended nearly 18% higher for the month. The front-month global benchmark Apr Brent crude contract expired at the end of the trading session. The contract settled at $66.13, down 75¢ (1.1%) for a monthly gain of 18%. May Brent crude, which is now the front month, lost $1.69 (2.6%) at $64.42 a barrel.
Oil futures settle lower, but U.S. benchmark logs a monthly gain of nearly 18%
Dow Jones Industrials
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