Dow went up 278, advancers over decliners an impressive 7-1 & NAZ gained 230. The MLP index added 1+ to the 214s & the REIT index rose 5+ to the 371s. Junk bond funds crawled higher along with the rising stock market & Treasuries had a little buying which lowered yields (more below). Oil fell 1+ to the 77s & gold added 4 to 1820.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
Credit scores remained relatively steady in Nov, according to a VantageScore report, while auto loan delinquency rates & average credit card balances, which saw year-over-year increases, appeared to flash warning signs for consumers. The credit-score model development company said its Dec 2022 CreditGauge report found that the national average VantageScore credit score for Nov was 696. That marked a one-point drop from Oct's 697, where the score "had been steady since March," & a 2.2-point increase year-over-year, according to the report. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate for auto loans 30-59 days past due in Nov went up on both a month-over-month &year-over-year basis. It rose 0.12% from Oct & 0.51% from Nov of last year, coming in at 2.00%. For auto loans 60-89 days past due & 90-119 days past due, the delinquency rates both saw increases compared to Nov 2021. On a monthly basis, the rate for the former saw a slight increase from Oct, while the latter stayed the same. "Auto Loan delinquency rates are in line with pre-pandemic levels, but this is an area to watch as consumers with lower credit scores could be more vulnerable to rising interest rates and higher prices," VantageScore's report said. While inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index did cool somewhat in Nov, prices are still hovering at painfully high levels, going up 0.1% from the prior month & 7.1% year-over-year, as earlier reported. In an effort to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve has done multiple interest rate increases this year, including 4 back-to-back 75-basis-point hikes &, most recently, a 50-basis-point one. Additionally, VantageScore’s report said the average credit card balance for Nov was roughly $5650, up $650 from the same month a year ago & the "highest level in the last 12 months." For credit cards, the report found that the average credit card utilization rate, at 30.2%, also saw increases of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.3% on a yearly basis. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in mid-Nov that one of its quarterly reports found that credit card balances had climbed $38B (15%)compared to Q3-2021.
Credit scores steady, but auto, credit cards flash warning
Treasury yields were mixed as investors weighed recession risks & assessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy in the new year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was lower by 2 basis point at 3.86%. & the 2-year Treasury yield inched higher by 1 basis point to 4.374%. Yields & prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Today, the Labor Dept reported an increase in jobless claims from last week, amid Federal Reserve efforts to cool the economy & in particular the labor market. First-time filings for unemployment benefits totaled 225K last week. That was an increase of 9K from the previous week & slightly above the 223K estimate. Bond markets will close early tomorrow & remain closed on Mon for New Year's Day.
10-year Treasury yield falls slightly as investors assess 2023 headwinds, Fed policy outlook
Heading into the new year, the Biden administration believes the US economy can still achieve a "soft landing." Supporting theories that the large-scale gov investments will help boost the labor market in the months & years ahead, a top adviser to the pres said. Those comments are from Heather Boushey, a member of the White House council of economic advisers. The stand by the White House comes as many economists fear a significant slowdown & possibly a recession is on the horizon as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates to fight inflation. Fed officials projected this month that the US would narrowly avoid a contraction in 2023, with output increasing by just 0.5%. central bankers expect the nation’s unemployment rate to rise from 3.7% in Nov to 4.6% by the end of next year. That would result in the likely loss of tens of thousands of jobs. A series of laws passed by Congress & signed by the pres during his first 2 years in office had created "funding streams" for infrastructure, clean energy & semiconductor manufacturing that would help blunt any downturn for the "real economy," according to Boushey. She admits there are "challenges" & "unforeseen things," ranging from Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine, but that the recent legislation would be "pushing in the other direction." "We remain optimistic that we will be able to see the soft landing that we are looking for," she said, adding: "Time will tell, but I think the pieces are in place to have a fighting chance to do so." Boushey pointed to the employment situation as a positive with average job gains in the last 3 months of 272K. The legislation that will support the labor market are the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Chips & Science Act & the Inflation Reduction Act.
US economy can still have a ‘soft landing’: report
Buyers came out of hiding to bid stock prices higher. Next week in the new year, serious traders should return. They will demonstrate the seriousness of this rally!!
Dow Jones Industrials
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