Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Markets rebound on improved consumer confidence

Dow soared 526, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ was up 157.  The MLP index added 3 to the 214s & the REIT index gained 3+ to the 371s.  Junk bond funds rallied along with stocks & Treasuries were about even with the 10 year Treasury yield holing at 3.68% (a 3 week high).  Oil rose 2+ to the 78s & gold was off 2 to 1823 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, reported quarterly earning that showed the retail giant exceeding expectations with growing revenue despite investor fears of an oncoming recession.  The athletic retailer was able to clear a significant amount of its previously reported inventory.  Overall revenue for the fsical Q2 had grown by 17% to $13.3B compared to the same time last year.  Moreover, revenues had increased by 27% on a currency-neutral basis. EPS rose to 85¢ which was similar to the prior year 83¢.  "Nike's results this quarter are a testament to our deep connection with consumers," said CEO John Donahoe.  "Our growth was broad-based and was driven by our expanding digital leadership and brand strength."  He added, "These results give us confidence in delivering the year as our competitive advantages continue to fuel our momentum."  Direct sales had increased during this period by 16% to $5.4B while growing by 25% on a currency-neutral basis.  Digital sales also increased by 25%.  Diluted EPS for Q2 also slightly increased by 2% to 85.  However, the company's gross margin fell by roughly 300 basis points to 42.9%.  Inventories had increased by 43% to a total of $9.3B compared to the same period last year.  The stock shot up 12.56 (12%).
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BUCKING THE TREND: Nike surges on earnings, revenue growth despite retail uncertainty

American consumers' confidence in the US economy grew in Dec as high inflation continued to ease, according to the Conference Board.  The business think tank’s latest consumer confidence index registered 108.3 this month, a significant jump from the upwardly revised measure of 101.4 in Nov.  The forecast called for the index to come in at 101, the highest reading for the index since last Apr.  “The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said.  “Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus.”  The national average for regular gasoline dropped to $3.11 per gallon today.  The latest survey showed that while consumers' intentions to spend money on vacations perked up, their plans to buy homes & purchase big-ticket appliances cooled, according to the Conference Board.

Consumer confidence improves in December, a hopeful sign for the economy

Due to rising costs, a toy & book store in Arizona is closing its doors after bringing joy to shoppers for 24 holiday seasons.   Kate Tanner, the owner of Kidstop Toys & Books in Scottsdale, opened up about what led to her decision to close.  "I’m one of the fortunate ones because I’m of retirement age," Tanner said.  "A new landlord kind of made that decision for us by raising our rent by 25%."  Tanner described the closure of Kidstop Toys & Books as "heart-wrenching."  "We’ve gotten to know everybody in the soccer leagues, the soccer moms, the banquets that the schools raise thousands of dollars for to keep everything moving forward," Tanner added.  "It was a long weekend of a lot of tears [and] hugs."  Tanner said she found a 7-year-old’s reaction to Kidstop Toys & Books closure to be heartbreaking because the child hugged her & told her the store shouldn’t close.  "Every time you walk out on your floor and you up a price – and we’re not even upping it as far as we should – it’s painful," Tanner said.  "I’m very blessed and fortunate that I’m in a position that I can decide to stop."  "I can’t tell you how many people are choosing the gift wrap over a discount," Tanner said.  "We have customers walking into our door refusing the discount."  "It has been quite heartwarming & it’s also been heart-wrenching," Tanner continued.  Aside from rising rent, Tanner said climbing gas prices & shipping issues from last year have created "the perfect storm."  She continued,  "But then this year, with the rise in cost, inflation, interest rates going up, which pushed away future buyers of the business…that just added to it."

Crushing inflation forces toy store to close after decades in business

Gold closed unchanged even as the $ rose, though weaker bond yields both moved higher.  Gold for Feb closed unchanged to settle at $1825 per ounce.  The flat close follows on yesterday's move by the Bank of Japan to widen the yield cap on its 10-year notes, making the securities more attractive to buyers & potentially limiting interest in Treasuries.  However while the $ dropped sharply yesterday following the decision, it recovered somewhat early today.  The ICE dollar index was last up 0.24 points to 104.2.  Bond yields rose again, a headwind for gold since it offers no interest.  The US 10-year note was last seen paying 3.666%, down 2.4 basis points.

Gold Closes Unchanged Despite Headwinds From a Rising Dollar and Higher Bond Yields

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at the highest since Dec 2 following a report that showed a larger than expected drop in US inventories while Saudi Arabia's oil minister said OPEC+ will continue to manage the market to support prices.  WTI crude for Jan closed up $2.06 to settle at $78.29 per barrel.  Feb Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $2.11 to $82.10.  In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration said US oil inventories fell by 5.9M barrels last week, well more than the estimate for a a 0.17m barrel draw.  Prices were also supported by comments from Saudi oil minister Abdulaziz bin Salman to the Saudi Press Agency but reported that OPEC+ will continue to actively manage the market as it looks to maintain oil prices, though the minister did not say what price level the cartel is looking to support.

WTI Crude Oil Rises as Report Shows a Larger Than Expected Drop in US Inventories

After boosting stock prices in the first hour of trading, buyers were pretty much able to keep the Dow close to those elevated levels for the rest of the day.  The story on closing the toy store is included because it was represetative of many such stories in the last couple of years.  All is not well in the economy.

Dow Jones Industrials








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