Dow finished down 73 with bargain hunting in late day trading, decliners over advanbcers better than 3-2 & NAZ retreated 11. The MLP index inched up to 217 & the REIT index declined 3+ to 370. Junk bond funds were about even & Treasuries had more selling, raising yields. The 10 year Treasury yields 3.88%. Oil went up 1+ to finished above 80 & gold was up 2 to 1828 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Small-business owners
say it is getting easier to hire workers & keep them around, in what
they hope is a sign that the worst of their labor problems are behind
them. The US job market remains historically tight. However, Dec
marked the first time since Jul when more small-business owners said in
a survey that they found it easier—rather
than harder—to find workers. Some entrepreneurs say steps such as
raising pay, adding apprenticeship programs & rewriting job ads are
starting to pay off. Others report an increase in applicants as
competitors pull back on hiring or begin layoffs. UnaliWear, a maker of medical-alert wristwatches, struggled this
summer to keep new employees on the job. "They would ghost us," said
CEO Jean Anne Booth, who has 17 employees. "They would accept the job,
show up one week, and never show up again." This fall, the Austin,
Texas, company increased starting pay from $15 an hour to $18 an hour & added a $1-an-hour raise after six months, aiming to put pay more in
line with other local employers. "Right now, for the first time in a
while, we are fully staffed," Booth said. Nearly 25% of the more than 650 entrepreneurs in the Dec survey said it was easier to fill job openings
now than at the start of 2022—an increase from 18% in Nov. Meanwhile, 20% said it was harder to fill open positions, down from 25%
in Nov. The survey is conducted for the Journal by Vistage
Worldwide Inc., a business-coaching & peer-advisory firm. The
shift is modest& comes as unfilled job openings continue to weigh on
many small businesses. Of those surveyed, 56% said hiring challenges
made it difficult to operate at full capacity. 84% of
small-business owners reported raising wages in response to labor-market
challenges & more than 2/3 reported offering flexible hours & schedules. In some sectors, economic worries are creating opportunities to add
talent. "We have seen it be a little easier, mostly because some of our
competitors are slowing down," said Dale Lemmons, owner of Signature
Transport & Interstate Wood Products, 2 trucking companies
in Kelso, Washington, that together have about 125 employees. "It’s not
quite the hot job market it was." Over the past 18 months,
Lemmons has boosted pay by 20% for entry-level truck drivers & by as
much as 40% for those with at least 3 years of experience. About 25
people have gone thru a paid apprenticeship program launched this
January, with another seven currently in training.
Small businesses find some relief from hiring woes
It's unlikely that a dangerous new Covid-19 variant is spreading in China, said Dr Chris Murray, Seattle-based director of a health research center at the University of Washington. His comments come as US health officials warned this week about the chance of a new Covid variant emerging in China's nationwide outbreak — and how Beijing's lack of transparency could delay detection of public health risks. Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation, pointed out there were likely billions of omicron infections worldwide this year, but no new Covid variant has emerged, only subvariants of omicron. “That’s why I would put the risk as quite low that there is a dangerous new variant in China,” Murray said. He noted that “some very special characteristics” would be needed for a new variant to emerge & replace omicron. The variant was first detected in South Africa more than a year ago. Omicron is far more transmissible, but causes less severe disease, than when Covid first emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Unlike much of the world, China's Covid wave this month is affecting a population of 1.4B people who are mostly getting infected for the first time. Only domestically made vaccines are widely available to locals. Beijing this month suddenly relaxed many Covid-related restrictions on movement. On Mon, authorities also said they would scrap inbound quarantine starting Jan 8, while resuming passport processing for Chinese citizens wanting to travel abroad for tourism. The US, Japan & a few other countries this week subsequently announced new Covid testing requirements for travelers from China. Murray said that an outright travel ban, if proposed, “would not make sense,” and that he “would not put in testing requirements.” “The argument that’s being made is, we need more transparency about what’s happening in China,” Murray added.
Risk of a dangerous new Covid variant in China is ‘quite low,’ U.S. health expert says
Despite this year's market havoc, investors are feeling fairly optimistic going into 2023, according to a new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. 4 out of 10 predict that the S&P 500 will rise 6-10% next year. Nearly 2 in 10 are calling for gains of 11-19%. Meanwhile, 6% are calling for stocks to jump by more than 20%, which would wipe out this year’s losses for the S&P 500, which is poised to end 2022 lower by 19%. About 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers & CNBC contributors who manage money about where they stood on the markets for the new year. The survey was conducted over the last week. Nearly ½ of the respondents are feeling optimistic that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate some sort of “soft landing” for the economy as the central bank continues to raise interest rates. Indeed, policymakers earlier this month increased rates by ½ a point to the highest level in 15 years. Notably, when asked about their biggest concern for the market, an overwhelming 73% of the participating money managers said it was Fed policy. Coming in 2nd place was a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 9% said labor & supply line problems are their biggest fear. Meanwhile 6% cited a massive resurgence of Covid, which is wreaking havoc in China right now. About 4 out of 5 participating money managers predict that inflation will continue to ease in the new year. Key investing themes for 2023 are also emerging: 72% of those polled said they will focus on value over growth in the new year. Energy stocks will also be a favorite among investors in 2023, with 41% of those polled saying that's where they'll be concentrating. Participants were evenly split between high dividend stocks, financial names & health-care companies, with 31% favoring each of those categories in the year ahead.
Money managers are hopeful about the stock market in 2023. How they plan to invest
Gold prices were set to wrap up
their best qtr since Jun 2020 on investor expectations
the Federal Reserve will slow its interest rate hikes after a
fast-paced tightening cycle tempered bullion's safe-haven rally this
year. On the last trading day of
2022, spot gold rose 0.3% to $1820 per ounce, while US
gold futures were steady at $1826. Gold
is expected to remain range-bound due to low market participation &
prices could rise further once it breaks above resistance at $1840. Bullion is down about 0.5% in 2022, having recovered from a more than 2-year low hit in Sep.
Gold Sees Best Quarter Since Mid-2020 in a Fed-Driven Year
US benchmark sees 6.7% annual gain. Oil futures ended higher in the last trading session of 2022, posting an annual rise in a year that saw investors weigh supply fears triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine against a wobbly global demand outlook & fears of a potential recession. Brent & WTI logged a 2nd annual rise, though both were set to finish well off highs set in Mar following Russia's late Feb invasion of Ukraine. WTI hit a nearly 14-year high above $130 a barrel in early Mar, while Brent traded just shy of $140. WTI ended the year well below where it stood on Feb 23, the eve of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at $92.10 a barrel. Brent pulled back from its preinvasion close at $94.05 a barrel. Crude oil prices have weakened over the H2 in part due to fears that aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve & other major central banks would tip the global economy into steep slowdown. Optimism over China's relaxation of strict COVID curbs, a factor seen as a weight on crude demand, has been offset by concerns over a surge in infections in the country.
Oil prices log a yearly rise in volatile 2022
Dow Jones Industrials
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