Dow went up 122, decliners above advancers about 2-1 & NAZ fell 72. The MLP index slid lower to the 215s & the REIT index was flattish in the 372s. Junk bond funds saw a little selling & Treasuries were sold, raising yields (more below). Oil rose above 80 & gold gained 20 to 1824.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
Retail sales jumped 7.6% during the critical holiday season that runs from Nov 1 - Christmas Eve, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks sales across all payment types. 
Americans
chose to eat out during the holidays, with restaurant spending up 15.1%
over the same time frame in 2021. Clothing rose 4.4%, while in-store
sales rose 6.8% & online sales rose 10.6%. Electronic & jewelry fell 5.3% & 5.4% respectively. "This holiday retail season looked
different than years past," Steve Sadove, a senior adviser at
Mastercard & former CEO of Saks (SKS), said. "Retailers discounted heavily but consumers diversified their holiday
spending to accommodate rising prices and an appetite for experiences
and festive gatherings post-pandemic." The 7.6% increase marked a slower pace than the 8.5% increase in 2021, but it was higher than MasterCard's expected 7.1% rate. Mastercard
SpendingPulse measures online & in-store sales across all payments
excluding the automotive industry & is not adjusted for inflation,
which has weighed on consumers this year. Inflation hit 7.1% last month, down from the high for the year of 9.1% in Jun but still 3 times higher than the pre-pandemic average. "Inflation
altered the way U.S. consumers approached their holiday shopping – from
hunting for the best deals to making trade-offs that stretched
gift-giving budgets," Michelle Meyer, North America chief economist for
the Mastercard Economics Institute, said.
Retail sector gets good news during critical holiday season
Treasury yields climbed as markets reopened after Mon's Christmas holiday & investors awaited data that could provide fresh clues about the state of the US economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up by around 3 basis points & was last trading at around 3.7789%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was last up by over 2 basis points to 4.3464%. An auction of 2-year Treasury notes worth a total of $42B is scheduled to take place today. Investors are looking to the final pieces of economic data this year for clues about a looming recession & developments regarding inflation. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in 2022 in an effort to fight persistently high inflation. The central bank increased rates by a further 50 basis points earlier this month after implementing 75 basis point rate hikes at each of its previous 4 meetings. Concerns about these rate hikes dragging the US economy into a recession have spread among investors in recent weeks.
Treasury yields rise as investors consider U.S. economic outlook
Russia's natural-gas production will fall by 12% this year & its exports will decline by about a qtr, a sign that intentional pressure on the country from sanctions on oil is taking a toll. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reportedly said that the drop in gas production compared with last year was largely due to the closure of export infrastructure. Most of Russia's natural-gas exports have been via pipelines, primarily to Europe. Russia's energy exports have faced mounting pressure from international sanctions & efforts by Europe to limit purchases paid to Russia for oil & gas, all in an effort to deplete the Kremlin's war chest in its attacks on Ukraine. Novak said separately on Fri that Russia could cut oil output in response to the Western price caps instituted earlier this month, reducing its oil production by 500-700K barrels a day—which he said was a 5-7% reduction in capacity—by early next year. The EU & the UK have also banned seaborne shipments of Russian crude. Russian officials have downplayed the impact of the price ceilings & other sanctions on Russia's oil-&-gas sector, the lifeblood of the country's economy. Since Putin's invasion of Ukraine in Feb, Russian authorities have stopped publishing data on trade statistics, including for oil & gas production, in an effort to protect the economy & domestic companies from further sanctions. Without those numbers, independent verification of Moscow's statements that it has been able to sanctions-proof its economy is complicated.
Russia’s gas production, exports reportedly shrink from sanctions pressure
Some traders are still on holiday & many bulls are in hiding. In the meantime retail sales include inflation price hikes, making it difficult to understand what higher sales really mean. Barring any major news events, this could be a quiet week in the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
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