Dow pulled back 241, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 167. The MLP index fell 3+ to 220 & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 381s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries had modest buying. Oil was off 2+ to the 74s (a low for 2022) & gold rebounded 5 to 1786.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
According to an industry analyst, the OPEC+ meeting on Sun could impact the recent plunge in domestic gas prices. The Saudi-led OPEC+ oil cartel (including
Russia) decided to maintain output cuts of 2M barrels per day
to boost the global price of oil. Recently, the price of oil has dropped on fears that coronavirus outbreaks & the strict zero-COVID
restrictions in China would reduce fuel demand in a significant
economy. On top of that, recession fears in the US & Europe raise
the prospect of lower demand for gasoline & other fuel made from
crude. "Gas
prices are dropping sharply and are only a nickel more per gallon than a
year ago," An AAA spokesperson said. But, because oil is the
main ingredient in gasoline, "OPEC+’s move could slow this decline,"
although prices will likely still be lower than they were a year ago,
was added. AAA reported that the national average for a gallon of
gasoline fell 14¢ to $3.40 over the past week. That's down from an
average of $3.79 a month ago & from a record high of $5 earlier
this summer. The Sun meeting with 23 oil-producing nations
came just one day before planned sanctions aimed at hitting Russia's
oil earnings in retaliation of its invasion of Ukraine took effect,
potentially tightening supply & driving up prices. This includes an EU boycott of most Russian oil & a
price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian exports imposed by the EU & the
Group of Seven democracies. It is unclear how much Russian oil the 2 sanctions measures could take off the global market. The
White House, which has been pushing for more oil supply, called the
OPEC+ decision to cut production quotas, announced in Oct,
"shortsighted." "At a time when maintaining a global supply of
energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most
negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already
reeling from elevated energy prices," national security adviser Jake
Sullivan & NEC Director Brian Deese said in a joint statement.
What the OPEC+ oil production cut means for gas prices
The explosion in US gov borrowing over the last 15 years has been fueled not by lending from China & Japan but thru the purchase of Treasuries by US financial institutions, state govs & other domestic entities. Experts said this radical shift in borrowing trends is one that poses a significant long-term threat to US economic growth. Federal borrowing has more than tripled since the housing crisis in 2008. Before the housing bust, the gov was $9T in debt, a number that ballooned to $31T this year. While new gov debt is usually thought of in terms of borrowing from overseas, most of the new debt seen since the housing crisis has been funded by domestic entities. In late 2010, shortly after the housing crisis, federal debt owned by the public totaled $7.8T & close to 2/3 of that represented lending from Japan, China & other foreign nations. By the summer of 2022, total debt owned by the public more than tripled to $23.9T – a jump of $16T that was mostly financed by US banks, mutual & pension funds, state & local govs & other domestic entities, according to federal data analyzed by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). Over that same time period, the amount of US debt held by China & Japan fell & borrowing from other nations accounted for just $3T of the $16T increase. Of the $31T national debt, foreign nations account for more than $7T, nearly $7T more is debt created by the gov borrowing from itself, $5.5T is held by the Federal Reserve & more than $10T is held by US companies, insurers, state govs & other domestic entities. Analysts say the shift in who lends to the US gov in part reflects the waning interest that foreign nations have in financing the ever-expanding US debt.
America's debt explosion poses a long-term threat to US economic growth
The American shopper is still feeling "stressed" by inflation, but
the effects aren't being felt evenly across categories, Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, CEO Doug
McMillon said. "We've got some customers who are more budget-conscious that have been under inflation pressure now for months," he said. "That sustained pressure in some categories, I think, is something customers are having to deal with as we approach Christmas." Shoppers are being more selective about their purchases, McMillon
said, & skipping some electronics, for example, in favor of staples. In the last couple qtrs, he said much of company's growth has come
from people who are going to WMT to save money. WMT is
among a slew of retailers that has seen a shift in shopping patterns as
inflation drives up the price of food, housing & more. For the
big-box retailer, that has led to challenges & opportunities. As the
nation's largest grocer, WMT has used low-priced groceries to
attract customers — including wealthier ones. About 75% of its market
share gains in grocery came from shoppers with an annual household
income of more than $100K in the past 2 qtrs. Prices for fresh food are more volatile & fluctuate more. Beef prices are down, for example, while chicken
prices are still high & produce prices are relatively low relative to
what they were before. “Dry grocery, processed foods and consumables are where the inflation’s most stubborn,” he added. WMT updated its forecast this summer to reflect that dynamic. It cut its profit outlook in Jul, as
it aggressively marked down some merchandise & as consumers bought
fewer high-margin discretionary items. But it raised its comparable
sales projection because of stronger-than-expected grocery sales. Last
month, it gave a more cautious outlook than was expected. WMT said it anticipates comparable sales for Walmart US will rise
about 3%, excluding fuel, in the holiday qtr, below expectations of 3.5% growth. The stock fell 1.06 .
If you would like to learn more about WMT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMTa_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Walmart CEO says shoppers are being more selective as they deal with inflation
Investors are becoming nervous again. Fears of continued high inflation & interest rates are driving their thoughts. The next step could be a recession!
Dow Jones Industrials
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