Monday, January 23, 2023

Markets advance as investors weigh next Fed rate move

Dow jumped 388, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 234.  The MLP index added 2+ to 211 & the REIT index was up 3+ to the 394s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold, increasing yields (more below).  Oil was fractionally higher to the 82s & gold slid back 3 to 1924.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Biden lauded a thriving & flourishing agriculture industry during his remarks at the White House Fri, but Kansas wheat farmers Vance & Louise Ehmke are telling a much different story.  "We've just been through a super cycle. We're at the end of it We had virtually windfall profits and now the party is nearly over, and we're getting ready to go into survival mode," Vance said.  "That means that, if you don't need it, don't buy it, pay down debt [and] don't buy anything like land because it's at the peak of the market," he added.  Vance said that working in the agriculture industry, particularly focusing on wheat has been "quite a ride" due to the volatile market.  "Going into this… we had $4 to $5 wheat and then they quadrupled. They went up to $13 a bushel and then, for a number of reasons, now they've collapsed back down to the cost of production," he said, adding that bankers & accountants share the farmers' gloomy outlook for the industry.  "Everybody's very concerned about where we are right now," he stressed.  Aside from concerns over wheat itself, the Ehmkes said their livelihood faces a rough road ahead with high costs of diesel & fertilizer & supply chain issues signaling a feast of problems.  "Gas has gone down, and we are thankful of that, but the main fuel we use on the farm in terms of equipment, though, is diesel," Louise added.  "While it's gone down a little, it's not gone down nearly as much as gas has," she continued.

Biden touts 'thriving' US agriculture — but farmers tell different story

Spotify (SPOT) announced that it is planning to cut 6% of its global workforce in order to rein in costs amid the challenging economic environment.  CEO Daniel Ek said that affected employees will be notified through one-on-one conversations as soon as this morning.  "Like many other leaders, I hoped to sustain the strong tailwinds from the pandemic and believed that our broad global business and lower risk to the impact of a slowdown in ads would insulate us," Ek said, adding that "in hindsight, I was too ambitious in investing ahead of our revenue growth."  According to Ek, operating expenses outpaced revenue growth in 2022, which he acknowledged would have been impossible to sustain.  "That would have been unsustainable long-term in any climate, but with a challenging macro environment, it would be even more difficult to close the gap," he said.  Over the last few months, Ek said the company has made a "considerable effort to rein-in costs" but it still hasn't been enough.  Ek said, though difficult, it was necessary in order to help the company control costs, speed up decision-making & become more efficient.  "In a challenging economic environment, efficiency takes on greater importance," Ek said.  The stock rose 3.29 (3%).
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Spotify cuts 6% of its workforce — read memo CEO Daniel Ek sent staff

Treasury yields rose as investors mulled the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision & considered the outlook for the broader economy.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up by about 4 basis points at 3.526% & the 2-year Treasury yield traded about 4 basis points higher to 4.221%.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions.  One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.  Investors weighed future monetary policy decisions as uncertainty over whether the Fed would hike interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its next meeting continued.  Fed speakers have recently hinted at a potential slowdown in rate increases to 25 basis points, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying outright Fri that he would favor a smaller hike.  Many investors are hoping for the central bank to slow, or completely pause, rate hikes this year.  The pace of rate increases announced by the Fed in its battle against high inflation has sparked concerns about a possible recession.

Treasury yields rise as investors assess monetary policy outlook

The Dow shot up from the start of trading & buyers kept coming.  They are betting on favorable data this week, including GDP data for Q4 & all of 2022.  But continued layoffs at high profile tech companies is disturbing.  As expected, gold saw selling.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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