Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Markets hesitate as earnings do not provide much support

Dow rose 104, advancers barley ahead of decliners & NAZ was off 30.  The MLP index crawled up to the 232s & the REIT index added 1 to the 394s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries continued in demand, driving yields lower.  Oil fell 1+ to about 80 & gold went up 10 to 1939 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Mike Roman, CEO of 3M (MMM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, said,  "In a year impacted by inflation, global conflicts, and economic softening, our team took actions to position 3M for future success."  But, he added, "We expect macroeconomic challenges to persist in 2023."  The company announced profits fell to $541M compared to $1.3B over the same time in 2021.  The earnings statement also showed sales for the qtr slipped 6%, operating cash flow went down 4% & organic sales growth lost 0.4%.  On the year, operating cash flow dropped 25% to $5.6B, while adjusted free cash flow also dropped 25% to $4.7B.  The company reported the declines were "primarily due to lower net income and the cash impact from capitalization of R&D for U.S. tax purposes."  Roman added, "The slower-than-expected growth was due to rapid declines in consumer-facing markets along with significant slowing in China due to COVID-related disruptions."  "As demand weakened, we adjusted manufacturing output and controlled costs, which enabled us to improve inventory levels," he continued.  The stock dropped 7.55 (6%).
If you would like to learn more about MMM
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MMM_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

3M cutting thousands of jobs as profits tumble

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported a 25% drop in earnings & declining sales for Q4 as demand dropped for its Covid-19 vaccine, while providing a cautious forecast for sales growth as the company undergoes a big transformation.  Quarterly revenue fell 4.4% to $23.7B on fewer vaccine sales & a stronger $, below estimates of $23.9B.  EPS came in at $1.33, down from $1.77 a year earlier, as JNJ also incurred costs related to its Covid vaccine & plans to separate its consumer-health business into an independent company.  Stripping out one-time items, adjusted EPS was $2.35, topping expectations of $2.23.  JNJ, whose financial results are considered a bellwether for many health sectors, expects sales to rise about 5% to $96.9 - 97.9B in 2023.  The company continues to see pressure on sales from staffing shortages at hospitals, which have limited growth in procedures using JNJ products, while inflation has boosted expenses.  The company expects sales & earnings growth to be stronger in H2 than in H1.  "We’re assuming a lot of carryover of the inflationary impact that we had in 2022,"  CFO Joseph Wolk said.  Global sales of Covid-19 vaccine dropped 57% to $689M for Q4.  Vaccine sales came only from outside the US, with none reported for the US in the latest qtr.  JNJ incurred $821M in costs related to the vaccine, including exiting its manufacturing contracts with other companies.  Wolk said that the vaccine is primarily in use in Africa & the company will continue to provide doses under advance purchase contracts throughout 2023.  The stock was unchanged.
If you would like to learn more about JNJ
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JNJ_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Johnson & Johnson fourth-quarter earnings down 25%

US business openings notched an all-time high in 2022 despite the onslaught of macroeconomic challenges, according to a new report from Yelp.  Over 637IK new businesses opened their doors across the nation in 2022, up 12% from pre-pandemic 2019, according to the publisher of crowd-sourced reviews.  Yelp has been tracking how Covid-19 has reshaped local economies & changed communities across the country.  Its latest report shows that new business growth in 86% of states even exceeded pre-pandemic levels, especially in the South, which had the strongest growth last year.  This underscores how local businesses were able to "persevere through labor shortages, high inflation, supply chain challenges" among other issues.  The growth was driven largely by new home & local services businesses, which increased by 40% & 30%, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic times.  Hotel & travel businesses saw 28% growth while auto services grew 25% & beauty services grew 17% compared to 2019.  "Compared to pre-pandemic levels, the hotels & travel category saw a significant percent change in seven out of the eight top metros, illustrating how demand for travel has helped local economies bounce back," according to the report.  Meanwhile, new restaurants, shopping & nightlife business openings fell behind pre-pandemic levels.  Still, new hotel & travel, nightlife & beauty businesses drove growth in major metros compared to 2021.

US business openings reach all-time high in 2022

Gold futures settled higher for a 4th straight session, at their highest since Apr.  Gold continues to draw confidence from US recession fears & expectations around a less aggressive Federal Reserve.  The precious metal could push higher if the fundamental drivers remain unchanged.  Gold for Feb rose $6 to settle at $1935 an ounce, the highest most-active contract settlement since Apr 21

Gold Futures Up A Fourth Straight Session

Oil futures finished lower, with US prices down nearly 2% as traders weighed demand expectations following the latest US economic data.  Crude prices tumbled after a steady dose of bad news from the economy.  Both manufacturing & service sectors remained in contraction territory & on many downbeat earnings.  But the headlines were mostly not supportive of an improving outlook.  US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar fell $1.49 (1.8%) to settle at $80.13 a barrel.

U.S. oil futures settle with a loss of nearly 2%

Modest buying in late day trading brought the Dow into the black although news was uninspiring.  Every day seems to bring another announcement of layoffs at a major company.  Nervous investors keep buying gold & Treasuries.  As show below, Dow keeps going sideways, staying near 33K.

Dow Jones Industrials 






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