Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Markets rise ahead of inflation data

Dow was up 31, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 69.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 224s & the REIT index jumped 9+ to the 388s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries had some buying, lowering yields.  Oil  rose 1+ to the 76s & gold was steady at 1876.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)


 

 




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The World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report highlights the cost of living crisis as the biggest short-term risk facing the world right now, with climate change as the biggest long-term threat.  The report, which has been published ahead of the Davos summit for the last 17 years, factors the views of 1200 figures across the private & public sectors.  This year's edition, produced with professional services firm Marsh McLennan & Zurich Insurance Group, said that Russia's war in Ukraine & the Covid-19 pandemic had propelled the energy crisis, food scarcity & inflation as the most pressing global issues.  “We’re looking at something that feels new, but at the same time eerily familiar,” Carolina Klint, risk management leader for Continental Europe at Marsh, said.  “So we see a return of some older risks that we felt we had made good progress in terms of solving, but are now very much back on the risk map.”  The impact of the cost of living crisis on vulnerable populations are “very difficult to accept,” Klint added.

Inflation crisis poses greatest near-term global threat, Davos survey warns

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, delivered 480 airplanes and won 774 net new orders after allowing for cancellations in 2022 in the wake of a strong Dec performance, the planemaker said.  Last month, BA delivered 69 airplanes, including 53 737 MAX planes & 15 widebody airplanes & booked 203 new orders net of cancellations.  Its official backlog as of Dec 31 rose to 4578 airplanes including 3628 737 MAX airplanes.  About 80% of its deliveries in 2022 were for 737s.  Gross orders were 935 in 2022 before cancelations & accounting adjustments.  BA's 2022 deliveries included 31 787 Dreamliners, including 10 handed over in Dec.  The planemaker in Nov delivered 48 airplanes & had just 21 new orders, consisting of 18 737 MAXs & 3 767s.  BA said in Nov a decline in 737 MAX deliveries was the result of its quality management system catching "a defect in the fuselage, two defects and delayed deliveries."  The stock rose 45¢.
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Boeing airplane deliveries, orders jump in 2022

After rising at the end of the year, mortgage rates dropped sharply last week.  That drove demand from current homeowners hoping to save on their monthly payments, but it did little to excite potential homebuyers.  As a result, total mortgage application volume rose just 1.2% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) seasonally adjusted index.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647K or less) decreased last week to 6.42% from 6.58%, with points remaining at 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  One year ago, that rate was 3.52%.  “Mortgage rates declined last week as markets reacted to data showing a weakening economy and slowing wage growth. All loan types in the survey saw a decline in rates,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.  The drop in rates sparked a 5% increase in applications to refinance a home loan.  Volume, however, was still 86% lower than the same week one year ago.  Even with rates lower than their previous high of over 7% last fall, at the current rate just 270K borrowers could benefit from a refinance, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology & analytics firm.  A year ago, with the rate ½ what it is now, roughly 7M borrowers could benefit.  Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 1% for the week & were 44% lower than the same week one year ago.  That was the lowest reading since 2014.  Buyers today are not only contending with higher interest rates but falling supply.  They are also seeing prices come down & may be waiting to see how low they go.

Mortgage refinance demand surges, as homeowners take advantage of lower interest rates

Investors are waiting for inflation data for the consumer price index tomorrow.  Then comes the data from the producer price index which signals inflation in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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