Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Markets climb to finish January with a strong gain

Dow rose 368 closing at the highs, advancers over decliners about 5-1 & NAZ went up 190.  The MLP index was even at 229 & the REIT index jumped 8 to the 406s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued in demand, lowering yields.  Oil was up 1+ to 79 & gold added 5 to 1944 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, doesn't expect inflation to cool this year despite beating predictions for Q4 earnings,  CEO Chris Kempczinski said, the fast food chain's accelerating the Arches strategy helped drive over 10% comparable sales growth & 5% in comparable guest count growth globally in 2022.  "While we expect short-term inflationary pressures to continue in 2023, we remain highly confident in Accelerating the Arches, which now includes a greater emphasis on new restaurant openings," Kempczinski added.  The Accelerating the Arches project will work alongside the recently announced Accelerating the Organization initiative, enabling the restaurant to be faster, more innovative & efficient.  MCD recorded Q4 EPS of $2.59 on $5.93B in sales, after a prediction of EPS for $2.46 on revenue of $5.72B.  Meanwhile, global comparable sales ballooned 12.6% & reflected improvements in all areas including a 10.3% pop in US sales & a 5% jump in systemwide sales.  In 2022, global comparable sales went up 10.9%, including a 5.9% increase in the US & a 13.3% jump in intl operated market segments.  Systemwide sales also moved 5% higher on the year, while consolidated revenues were flat.  The stock fell 4.90.
If you would like to learn more about MCD
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Why McDonald's doesn't expect inflation to cool anytime soon

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic propelled pharmaceutical company Pfizer's (PFE) earnings to a record $100B last year, almost $57B of which was driven by its vaccine & antiviral pill Paxlovid.  The vaccine accounted for $37.8B, up just 3% from 2021, of total sales as demand for the shots slowed.  But sales of its blockbuster antiviral treatment made up for that softening, surging to $18.9B in 2022, the first full year that Paxlovid was on the market.  Combined sales from its Covid vaccine & antiviral treatment generated more revenue last year than it had in total sales in 2019, before the pandemic became a global crisis that killed more than 6.8M people & upended world markets.  Those results won't be repeated this year.  PFE expects revenue to decline in 2023 by as much as 33% to $67-71B as the world emerges from the pandemic & demand for its blockbuster Covid drugs slows.  Covid vaccines sales are projected to plummet by 64% this year to $13.5B from $37.8B in 2022.  Paxlovid sales are expected to drop 58% to $8B in 2023 from $18.9B in 2022.  PFE is also forecasting that its full-year EPS will drop by as much as 50%, to $3.25 - $3.45, from a record EPS of $6.58 in 2022.  CEO Albert Bourla last qtr laid out a 2030 growth plan for the company that looks beyond the pandemic.  He sees future revenue growth from RSV vaccines & medications for migraines & ulcerative colitis, among other drug products.  The stock rose 30¢.
If you would like to learn more about PF
E, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

The Covid pandemic drives Pfizer’s 2022 revenue to a record $100 billion

UPS (UPS) reported Q4 revenue that missed expectations & declined from last year, as the company continues to see volume fall amid cooling demand.  The shipping & delivery company offered full-year guidance that fell below expectations.  It is projecting revenue $97B-$99.4B, versus estimates of $100B.  Still, it expects the 2nd half of the year to be better than the first.  For Q4, the company reported EPS $3.62 compared with $3.59 a year earlier.  “We expect 2023 to be a bumpy year,” CFO Brian Newman said.  Yet Newman also said that UPS expects about 56% of its profit to come in during H2, counting on US & intl challenges easing during the later months of 2023.  Compa’s shares fell over 10% in 2022 as consumer spending adjusted to inflation & came down from Covid pandemic highs.  Since taking the helm in 2020, CEO Carol Tomé has been championing a “Better not Bigger” business strategy, which it adjusted to “Better and Bolder” in last qtr's earnings announcement, focusing on high-margin shipments rather than just boosting volume.  It also aims to use automation to optimize capacity during periods of shifting volumes.  That strategy was put to the test last qtr as volume declines weighed on revenue.  UPS also forecast adjusted operating margin of 12.8% - 13.6% for the year.  The company expects capital expenditures to come in at about $5.3B, after tightening spending to $5B last year.  The stock gained 8.03 (5%).
If you would like to learn more about UPS
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

UPS revenue falls short of expectations despite growth in U.S. business

Gold futures ended with a gain & tallied a 3rd consecutive monthly gain. Gold rose for the session after another round of economic data showed the labor market is cooling & the outlook for the economy remains weak.  Bad economic news is once again good news for gold as it will continue to cement bets that a Federal Reserve pivot, a change in its monetary policy, could happen by the end of the year.  Gold for Apr rose $6 to settle at $1945 an ounce.  Based on prices for the most-active contract, gold tacked on more than 6% for the month.

Gold settles higher, posts a third-monthly gain ahead of an expected Fed interest rate hike

Oil futures climbed, but US benchmark prices posted a loss for the month ahead Federal Reserve monetary policy decision & a committee meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries & their allies (OPEC+), which are both scheduled for tomorrow.  The main driver for oil lately has been the potential for a resurgence of oil demand out of China, which may continue into Feb considering how Chinese economic momentum picked up in the overnight PMI reports.  US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar rose 97¢ (1.3%) to settle at $78.87 a barrel.  Based on the front-month contract, prices lost 1.7% for the month.

U.S. oil prices gain for the session, fall for the month

Jan was a choppy month after a brutal year in 2022.  But most investors are happy with the gain.  Dow finished up 940 in Jan.  

Dow Jones Industrials 






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