Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Markets retreat after disappointing Microsoft guidance

Dow dropped 363, decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ slid back 211.  The MLP index lost 1+ to 231 & the REIT index fell 2+ to 393.  Junk bond funds saw some selling & Treasuries had a little buying which reduced yields (more below).  Oil rose, nearing 81 & gold was off 2 to 1833.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, execs said to expect a continuation of the weak pace of business that emerged in Dec, which hurt the software maker’s fiscal 2nd qtr results.  “In our commercial business we expect business trends that we saw at the end of December to continue into Q3,” CFO Amy Hood said.  In particular, the company saw less growth than expected in Microsoft 365 productivity software subscriptions, identity & security services, & business-oriented Windows products.  Growth in consumption of the company's cloud computing service Azure also slowed down, she added.  The company sells products such as Xbox consoles & Surface PCs to consumers, but most of its revenue comes from commercial clients such as companies, schools & govs.  That's where the impact will show up.  A metric dubbed Microsoft Cloud, including Azure, commercial subscriptions to Microsoft 365, commercial LinkedIn services & Dynamics 365 enterprise software, now represents 51% of total sales.  Hood said said Azure growth would slow down more.  In the full Dec qtr, revenue from Azure & other cloud services rose 42% in constant currency.  But in Dec, Hood said, growth was in the mid-30% range in constant currency & she forecast a further slowdown of 4-5 percentage points in the current qtr, which ends in Mar.  The slowdown that started in Dec should also carry thru to Q3 results for Windows commercial products & cloud services, a category that includes Windows volume licenses for businesses.  Her forecast included flat revenue for Windows commercial products & cloud services, compared with a decline of 3% in the fiscal 2nd qtr.  The stock dropped 4.91 (2%).
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Microsoft’s forecast suggests gloomy tech environment will continue

Mortgage interest rates fell for the 3rd straight week, while mortgage demand also rose again.  Total application volume increased 7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.2% from 6.23%, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  That rate was just about ½ that one year ago.  Applications to refinance a home loan saw the sharpest gains, up 15%, compared with the previous week.  They were still 77% lower than the same week a year ago, but that annual gain is now shrinking fast.  Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% for the week but were 39% lower year over year.  Homebuyers are still trickling back into the market, as house prices ease slightly.  There is still, however, precious little to choose from with inventory low.  “Homebuying activity remains tepid, but if rates continue to fall and home prices cool further, we expect to see potential buyers come back into the market,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.  “Many have been waiting for affordability challenges to subside.”  Mortgage rates have moved slightly higher to start this week, but are still well within the new lower range. Some real estate brokerages, like Redfin, are reporting an uptick in buyer interest with rates at these levels, but the housing market still seems to be in a holding pattern, as potential sellers & buyers sit tight, waiting to see where prices shake out.

Weekly mortgage demand jumps 7% as interest rates drop to lowest level since September

Treasury yields dipped as investors looked to earnings reports & economic data for fresh insights into the state of the US economy & what to expect from now.  The 10-year Treasury was trading more than 2 basis points lower at 3.445% & the yield on the 2-year Treasury  was about 2 basis points lower at 4.135%.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions.  One basis point equals 0.01%.  As concerns about a looming recession have spread, investors are looking to earnings reports to assess how companies are faring.  They are also scanning future guidance issued alongside the reports for hints about the outlook for the US economy.  Investors have been fretting over whether the Fed will increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points as it continues its battle against persistently high inflation.  Many are concerned that the pace of rate hikes implemented so far is leading the US economy into a recession.

Treasury yields dip as investors assess earnings, economic outlook

Many investors are nervous, so they are buying safe haven gold & Treasuries.  When they buy Treasuries, yields fall.  That's a minus for Fed & the work they are doing on interest rates.  The inverted yield curve (the yield on short term debt is above long term debt) persist & it is a classic signal of a coming recession.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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