Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Markets climb after job openings fall to lowest in over a year

Dow rose 96, advancers over declines about 3-1 & NAZ gained 183.  The MLP index was even at 238 & the REIT index added 1+ to the 365s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were purchased, lowering yields.  Oil was chump change higher, still above 80, & gold went up 15 to 1981.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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US job openings tumbled in Jul to the lowest level in more than 2 years, the latest evidence that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hike campaign is continuing to cool the once red-hot labor market.  The Labor Dept said there were 8.8M job openings in Jul, a decline from the 9.1M openings reported the previous month.  The forecast expected a reading of 9.46M.  It marked the lowest level for job openings since Mar 2021.  Still, job openings remain historically high.  Before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, the highest on record was 7.6M.  There are roughly 1. 5 jobs per unemployed American.

Job openings drop more than expected in July to 2-year low

Home prices rose for the 5th consecutive month in Jun even as buyers continued to confront steep mortgage rates.  Prices increased 0.9% nationally in the period from May to Jun on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed.  On an annual basis, prices are down just 0.02% from their peak in Jun 2022.  "June is the fifth consecutive month in which home prices have increased across the U.S," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.  "We recognize that the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, but the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results."  The 10-city composite, which encompasses Los Angeles, Miami & New York, fell 0.5% annually, compared with a 1.1% decline in May.  The 20-city composite, which also tracks housing prices in Dallas & Seattle, fell 1.2% in Jun, which also marks an improvement from the 1.7% drop recorded the previous month.  "Regional differences continue to be striking," Lazarra said.  "The Midwest continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast. The West remains the weakest region."  "High mortgage rates are still no match for very low inventory, making competition for what is on the market higher than it would be otherwise given the affordability constraints, and thus prices continue to inch up," said Nicole Bachaud, Zillow senior economist. "Differences continue to be striking," Lazarra said.  "The Midwest continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed this month by the Northeast. The West remains the weakest region."

Home prices rise for fifth straight month as mortgage rates soar

Treasury yields declined as investors digested the latest job openings report & looked ahead to inflation data later in the week.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 6 basis points to 4.151% & the 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.95% after falling by 9.8 basis points.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions & one basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, is expected to be published Thurs.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested last week that further interest rate hikes could be on the horizon.  Speaking at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium, Powell said that while inflation has fallen, it remains too high.  “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,” Powell added.

Treasury yields fall as investors digest job openings, look ahead to inflation data 

While the jobs opening data sounds good, it remains in high territory.  Tomorrow the first estimate for GDP growth Q3 will be released & the Fed is tracking at a growth rate of 5.9%.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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