Markets wobble, looking for direction

Dow edged up 26, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ lost 26.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 236s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 359s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries rose with continued strong demand.  Oil was up about 1 to the 81s & gold crawled up 2 (finally) to 1916 (more on both below).

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China's heavily indebted property giant Evergrande Group filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a US court.  The company referenced restructuring proceedings in Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands & the British Virgin Islands.  In a separate statement, Evergrande said that it will ask the US court for “recognition of the schemes of arrangement under the offshore debt restructuring for Hong Kong and the British Virgin Islands.”  It added, “The application is a normal procedure for the offshore debt restructuring and does not involve bankruptcy petition.”  The world's most indebted property developer defaulted in 2021 & announced an offshore debt restructuring program in Mar.  Trading of Evergrande shares have been suspended since Mar 2022.  Evergrande's filing comes amid contagion fears that China's property sector troubles could spill over to other parts of the economy, which has already seen faltering growth.  Most recently, Country Garden, which used to be one of China's largest developers, struggled to make coupon payments on US $-denominated bonds & issued a profit warning.  The firm has also suspended trading in at least 10 of its mainland China-traded yuan bonds.

China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in U.S. court

New Covid vaccines from Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA) & Novavax (NVAX) will likely provide protection against the new “Eris” variant, now the dominant strain of the virus in the US.  The drugmakers designed their updated vaccines to target the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, which is slowly declining nationwide.  But health experts& initial data suggest that the new shots will still be effective against Eris, or EG.5, & other widely circulating variants – all of which are descendants of omicron.  “I think that these vaccines will provide very substantial protection against EG.5. Maybe just a little bit of loss, but it’s nothing that I’m very concerned about,” Dr Mark Mulligan, director of the NYU Langone Vaccine Center, said.  “It looks like we’re going to be OK.”  All 3 companies are still waiting for the Food & Drug Administration to approve their vaccines, meaning those jabs won't be available to the public for a month or so.  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) also has to decide which Americans should get the shots & how often.  Still, the upcoming arrival of those vaccines offers some reassurance to Americans as Eris & other Covid variants fuel a slight uptick in cases & hospitalizations across the country but remain below the summer peak that strained hospitals this time last year.  Eris accounted for 17.3% of all cases in the US as of earlier this month, according to the latest data from the CDC.  The new strain surpassed XBB.1.5, which accounted for roughly 10% of all cases.  The World Health Organization earlier this month designated Eris a “variant of interest,” meaning it will be monitored for mutations that could potentially make it more severe.  But the health agency & experts said Eris does not appear to pose a significant threat – or at least no more than any of the other omicron variants currently circulating in the US.  It's also not expected to cause a huge wave of Covid cases like other strains have in previous years.

New Covid vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax will likely protect against Eris variant

Goldman Sachs strategists no longer expect home prices to fall this year & are instead forecasting an increase that could keep pressure on would-be buyers who are already grappling with steep mortgage rates.  Goldman analysts estimated that home prices will rise by 1.8% this year because of limited inventory & stronger-than-expected demand.  "Housing supply continues to tighten," they wrote.  "On the existing home front, the inventory of homes available for sale remains historically low. New listings are being added at the lowest pace on record, driving positive net absorption even amid paltry purchase application volume."  Even though mortgage rates are nearly double what they were 3 years ago, home prices have hardly budged.  That is largely due to a lack of available homes for sale.  Sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.  The number of available homes on the market at the end of Jul was down by more than 9% from the same time last year & down a stunning 46% from the typical amount before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020.  Adding to the trouble is that builders have been slow to get new construction on the market.  New listings are being added at the lowest pace on record, because many houses are still under construction.  The housing shortage has only served to boost consumer demand, which is keeping prices uncomfortably high despite the highest mortgage rates in 2 decades.

Home prices will rise in 2023 as affordability crisis worsens, Goldman says

Gold futures settled higher, their first gain after a 9-session losing streak, their the longest string of losses since 2017.  However, futures prices for the precious metal based on the most-active contract still ended the week with a loss of nearly 1.6%.  With long term Treasury yields heading back to 2008 levels & inflation looking as if it may be coming down, the rationale for owning gold looks set to diminish further.  Gold for Dec rose $1 to settle at $1916 an ounce.

Gold Futures Mark First Gain In 10 Sessions

US oil futures settled higher, but prices based on the front-month contract lost more than 2% for the week.  There continues to be a battle royale between supply & demand, with OPEC+ cutting production, led by Saudi Arabia, while Chinese economic woes act as a counterweight.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep climbed by 86¢ (1.1%) to settle at $81.25 a barrel.

U.S. Oil Futures Finish Higher For The Session, Fall For The Week

After a little selling in the first hour of trading, Dow bounced back & stayed close to even for the rest of the session.  Some traders are away on holiday.  For the week, Dow fell 780.

Dow Jones Industrials