Monday, August 21, 2023

Markets slump while NAZ stocks rallied in an oversold market

Dow retreated 36 (above session lows), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ added 206.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 237s & the REIT index was off 3+ to the 355s (reacting to higher interest rates).  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries had heavy selling, raising yields.  Oil fell below 91 & gold went up 7 to 1923 (more below on both).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Disneyland Resorts in Southern California closed yesterday, while Universal Studios Hollywood said it would be open today as Tropical Storm Hilary hammers the region.  Disneyland Resorts assured guests that they are closely monitoring Hilary & making adjustments based on the latest information from the National Weather Service.  The popular theme park said that resort hotels will remain open to continue to serve guests.  Universal Studios Hollywood said that their parks are planning on remaining open, but they are continuing to monitor the incoming hurricane.  "The safety of our guests and team members is our top priority, and while we currently expect to remain open, we suggest guests return to this website or call our hotline at 800-864-8377 for updates prior to visiting our destination," Universal Studios Hollywood said.  The stock fell 18¢.
If you would like to learn more about DIS,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Disney theme park closes gates, set to decide whether it'll reopen

Mortgage rates jumped today, following a rise in bond yields driven by investors' concerns that high interest rates & inflation will linger longer than expected.  The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.48%, the highest level since 2000, according to Mortgage News Daily.  It has risen 29 basis points in just the past week.  “Investors just aren’t seeing the kind of deterioration in economic data that they expected,” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.  He noted that the Federal Reserve wants to see the same deterioration before considering a policy shift & that shift would likely favor short-term rates first.  “The net effect is that longer-term rates like 10-year Treasury yields and mortgages are bearing the brunt of the market’s negative rate sentiment. This won’t change until the data forces the Fed to start talking about the first rate cut.”  Higher rates are hitting potential homebuyers hard, adding insult to the injury of pandemic-inflated home prices.  Rates set more than a dozen record lows in 2020, setting off a homebuying spree that caused prices to rise over 40% from the start of the pandemic to the summer of 2022.  Prices pulled back slightly at the end of last year but are now rising again due to still-strong demand & very lean supply.  Higher mortgage rates exacerbate the supply situation.  Current homeowners are reluctant to list their homes for sale because the vast majority of them have rates around or below 3%.  To move to another home would mean more than doubling that rate.  It has created what is now being called “golden handcuffs” among potential sellers.

Mortgage rates hit their highest point since 2000

The US is slapping tariffs on several solar companies that tried to circumvent existing import duties on goods from China by finishing their products in other Southeast Asian countries.  The Dept of Commerce (DOC) announced that subsidiaries of Chinese companies BYD, Trina Solar, Vina Solar & Canadian Solar were dodging US tariffs on Chinese solar cells & panels by conducting minor processing to finish their products in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam. Another firm, New East Solar, will face tariffs after refusing to cooperate with an on-site audit of its operations in Cambodia.  Tariffs on the companies that were found to be circumventing import restrictions aren't scheduled to take effect until Jun 2024 to give US solar importers "sufficient time to adjust supply chains and ensure that sourcing is not occurring from companies found to be violating U.S. law," the DOC said.  The tariffs also come as a boost for US solar manufacturers, which have struggled to compete with Chinese rivals for years & are receiving an infusion of investment through Pres Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which includes significant subsidies for the sector.  The US has had anti-dumping tariffs in place on Chinese solar products for more than a decade after a previous probe by the DOC found the Chinese companies were receiving unfair gov subsidies.  Solar companies making products in, or sourcing components from China have also faced scrutiny over the use of forced labor from Uyghurs & other predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities persecuted by the Chinese gov.  Collectively, roughly 80% of US solar panel supplies come from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand & Vietnam.  To comply with US import rules, companies doing business in those countries can go thru a certification process to demonstrate that they aren't circumventing US tariffs by showing that solar cells & panels contain non-Chinese wafers along with 3 other key components.  Solar industry companies & trade groups expressed opposition to the DOC's announcement, arguing the tariffs will undercut the Biden administration's efforts to boost the solar industry as part of its green energy push.

US Department of Commerce slaps tariffs on solar companies for dodging China duties

Gold prices climbed, with the yellow metal scoring back-to-back gains after a lengthy losing streak, even as 10-year Treasury yields looked set to log more multi-year highs.  Gold futures for Dec gained $6 to settle at $1923 per ounce.  Gold has been“suffering the pressures caused by a strong $, as inflation remains sticky & the economy demonstrates a resilience that few had predicted

Gold Prices Score Back-to-Back Gains Following Four-Week Losing Streak

Oil futures settled lower, after posting gains in the past 2 trading sessions.  Demand concerns continue to limit total upside & have the market hesitant to push far above the $80 a barrel mark.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep declined by 53¢ (0.7%) to settle at $80.72 a barrel.

Oil Futures Mark First Decline in 3 Sessions

In early trading, Dow was down 200.  Buyers returned in the PM & took it into the black briefly near the end & it finished with a moderate loss.  Tech stocks on NAZ were the shining light & there was bargain hunting in that oversold market.  Anything is possible in the next couple of weeks, but serious trading will resume after Labor Day.

Dow Jones Industrials 







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