Monday, August 28, 2023

Markets rise as investors weigh Jay Powell's speech on Friday

Dow went up 182, advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained 70.  The MLP index traded high in the 237s & the REIT index rose 3+ to the 364s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries had limited buying which lowered yields.  Oil climbed, taking it over 80 & gold added 8 to 1948.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


 

 




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The US housing market may be stuck in a prolonged freeze.  Fannie Mae economists projected in a revised forecast that stagnation in the housing market could last into 2024, whether the economy avoids a recession or not.  "Regardless of whether a soft landing is achieved over the coming year, we expect existing home sales to stay subdued and within a tight range," they wrote.  Existing home sales have already tumbled 2.2% in Jul from the previous month to an annual rate of 4.07M units, according to new data by the National Association of Realtors.  On an annual basis, sales of previously owned homes are down 16.6% when compared with the same time last year.  The slowdown in sales is largely due to the meteoric rise in mortgage rates, which surged to a fresh 2-decade high this week.  Freddie Mac reported that rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged to 7.23% this week, well above the 5.55% rate recorded one year ago and the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%.  It marks the highest level for rates since 2001.  In addition to locking out many consumers due to affordability constraints, the spike in mortgage rates is fueling another problem in the housing market: limited supply.  That's because sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell with rates continuing to hover near a 2-decade-high, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.  The number of available homes on the market at the end of Jul was down by more than 9% from the same time last year and& down 46% from the typical amount before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020.

The US housing market may be trapped in a prolonged freeze

Nordstrom  (JWN) surpassed quarterly sales & earnings expectations, as it showed signs of progress in turning around its lagging business.  Yet despite a sizable beat, the retailer stuck with its previous full-year outlook, signaling caution about the coming months.  The company expects revenue to fall 4-6% & adjusted EPS of $1.80-2.20 for the fiscal year, excluding the impact of winding down its stores & online business in Canada.  Results, while better than expected, reflect the company's challenges. Sales for the upscale department store operator in the fiscal Q2 still fell below pre-pandemic levels.  JWN largely missed out on the stimulus-fueled spending spree during Covid that benefited other retailers.  Nordstrom Rack, the off-price chain that the retailer wants to fuel its revival, still posted sales declines during the qtr reported.  CEO Erik Nordstrom said the retailer will focus on boosting the Rack’s sales, on improving inventory management & making its supply chain more efficient through year-end.  EPS rose to 84¢, from 77¢, a year earlier.  Net sales decreased 8.3% compared with a year ago.  The company said some of that decrease is due to the wind-down of its business in Canada & a one-week shift in timing for its annual anniversary sale.  If those 2 factors were taken out, net sales would have been down about 4% year over year.  Total revenue also dropped about 8% compared with $4.1B in the prior period.  “Looking ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on these priorities, all while keeping the customer at the center of everything we do,” he said.  The stock lost 8¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JWN_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Nordstrom sinks after retailer posts weak holiday sales

From writers' rooms to car factories, workers are pressing companies for higher pay & better quality of life.  Many are willing to walk off the job to get there & some are winning.  Emboldened in the wake of shifting job security & grueling conditions during the Covid-19 pandemic, skyrocketing company profits, inflation, a decades-high approval rating for labor unions & growing disparity between worker pay & exec compensation, more workers across industries have taken a hard stance against companies for dramatic improvements in compensation and working conditions.  Some worker unions, are nailing down record labor deals following threats of striking.  Others have gone on strike to force the issue.   The rich contracts & work stoppages in recent months follow high-profile organizing efforts by workers across the country that started prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and have grown increasingly more intense following the global health crisis, affecting companies from Amazon (AMZN) & Starbuckx (SBUX) to airlines & automakers.  “The pandemic shook the ground of everybody,” said Robert Bruno, director of the Labor Studies Program at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.  More than 320K workers have participated in at least 230 strikes so far this year, according to data from the Cornell University School of Industrial & Labor Relations.  That's already higher than the roughly 224K workers who participated in roughly 420 strikes in 2022, due in large part to tens of thousands of striking workers with the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television & Radio Artists & Writers Guild of America.  “Major” strikes involving 1000 or more workers so far amount to just 16 such work stoppages this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That compares to a recent high of 25 recorded major work stoppages in 2019 & 23 last year.  The actions have led to more organizing efforts & greater support by Americans for organized labor.  Gallup reports 71% of Americans approved of labor unions in 2022, the highest since 1965.

Labor unions are pushing hard for double-digit raises and better hours. Many are winning

Markets began trading higher but are slowly drifting lower.  Typically this is not an exciting week on slow trading.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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