Dow went up 144, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 202. The MLP index slid back 1+ to the 235s & the REIT index rebounded 3+ to 360. Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries were very heavily purchased which sharply reduced yields. Oil was fractionally lower to about 79 & gold advanced 20 to 1946 following recent weakness.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Since late last year, the case for a 2023 recession has been that
consumers would run out of spending power following a post-pandemic
spending spree. That narrative has lasted so long that it's now the
predicate of predictions for a 2024 downturn, after no 2023 dip
materialized. But those predictions look shakier after 2nd-qtr profit reports came in, with companies beating
profit forecasts. The case for the consumer is also bolstered by a
range of other recent consumer statistics, from deposit levels at big
financial institutions to car
sales trends. They present a picture of the consumer economy that shows
real incomes rising as inflation wanes, consumers still holding onto
most of the extra savings they banked during Covid & sectors
including automobiles & services picking up the baton of consumer
spending as growth in furniture, appliances & apparel remains weak
after the Covid boom in goods purchasing. The data point to rebounds in a series of economic stats that did make
the case that a recession was likely roughly a year ago, in the 3rd
qtr of 2022. All of the data has improved this year, led by the
steep decline in inflation. After the Census Bureau reported Jul retail
sales rose 0.7%, both Moody's & the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank
raised their real-time tracking forecast for 3rd-qtr growth this
year.
Earnings, economic data show the consumer is still in control of the economy
Money market mutual funds are earning the highest interest rates in decades, making them an increasingly attractive option for investors seeking higher yields with relatively low risk. Savers are reaping the rewards of high returns on money market mutual funds, which typically hold lower-risk investments like Treasuries & some types of corp bonds that present investors with lower-risk alternatives than what they would see in stocks. Money markets are often treated similarly to savings accounts as they afford investors a relatively safe & liquid means of stashing their cash. Money market funds are paying an average interest rate of 5.15% according to Crane Data, which is the highest level since 1999 & comes after money market yields were typically much lower over the last 2 decades. An analysis of the Crane 100 Money Fund Index, which is based on an average of the 100 largest taxable money market funds, found that money market yields last touched 5% in 2008 before declining to near zero over the next 2 years as the financial crisis roiled the economy. Money market yields remained near zero until 2016 when they began a steady rise to over 2% thru 2019 before they declined to near zero amid the COVID pandemic. As inflation soared in the US economy in 2022 due to high levels of gov spending & pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, the Federal Reserve began a campaign of interest rate hikes aimed at stabilizing consumer prices by tamping down inflation. That resulted in higher yields on Treasuries &, in turn, money markets. With money market funds once again delivering high returns, investors have looked to shift their funds into money markets as a means of securing a yield that preserves their purchasing power by beating inflation, which has thus far persisted above the Fed’s 2% target rate & came in at 3.2% year over year as of Jul. Total assets in money market mutual funds have risen steadily in 2023, hitting a new record of $5.57T last week ending after investors poured nearly $40B into money markets, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Those figures include more than $2T in retail money markets & nearly $3.5T in institutional accounts. Powell said after the last Fed meeting, "We intend again to keep policy restrictive until we’re confident that inflation is coming down sustainably to our 2% target, and we’re prepared to further tighten if that is appropriate."
Money market funds hit record as investors jump at 5% returns
Mortgage rates jumped last week to the highest level in 23 years,
pushing mortgage demand from homebuyers to the lowest level in 28 years. Total
mortgage application volume fell 4.2% last week, compared with the
previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's
(MBA) seasonally adjusted index. Last
week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate
mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726K or less) increased to
7.31% from 7.16%, with points rising to 0.78 from 0.68 (including the
origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. Last year that rate
was 5.65%. “Treasury yields continued to spike last week as
markets grappled with illiquidity and concerns that the resilient
economy will keep inflation stubbornly high,” said Joel Kan, an MBA
economist. As a result, applications for a mortgage
to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week & were 30% lower than the
same week one year ago. Buyer demand stood at the lowest level since
1995. Potential buyers are dealing not only with high interest
rates & high prices, but extremely low supply. The available homes on
the market at the end of Jul were close to a qtr-century low, according to the National Association of Realtors. The
adjustable-rate mortgage share of applications increased to 7.6%, which
was the highest level in 5 months & the number of ARM applications
rose 4% week to week. “Some homebuyers are looking to lower their
monthly payments by accepting some interest rate risk after the initial
fixed period,” noted Kan. Mortgage rates continued to climb this week & are now around 7.5% according to Mortgage News Daily.
Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low as interest rates soar
As shown below, Dow has fallen a good 1000 in Aug. Bargain hunters have returned, but the specter of high interest rates & their effect on the economy remains. Powell will give a speech at the summer resort in Jackson Hole on Fri & everybody will pay attention to his comments.
Dow Jones Industrials
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