Thursday, November 20, 2008

Dow testing 8000

After a 200 point drop on the opening following the ugly jobless claims report, Dow climbed back in an overdo rally of an over sold market. But that did not hold, it's slipping back again, down 69, decliners over advancers 3-1 while NAZ is even. Nice rebound!

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX hit another new low. As recently as 2 months ago, this index "rose" to 300 (still far below 500+ reached in June 2007):

Value
134.51
Change
-5.33
% Change
-3.8%


The Alerian MLP Index dropped 12 to 162, nearing the sub 160 multi year low region while the Dow Jones REIT Index is down pennies in its vastly oversold market. VIX shot up another 2 to the 76s, nearing the 80 high close achieved a few weeks ago. Fear runs high.

Yields on Treasuries keep plunging. The Treasury 10 year bond yield dropped to only 3.21%. All Treasury yields are at or near all time record lows, this is where frightened money is flowing.

Treasury Yields Drop to Record Lows as Investors Seek Safety of U.S. Debt


Oil (as with other commodities) keeps getting hammered by global recession news. After falling thru 50 this AM, buyers brought it back above 50 but still down sharply. Oil's bear market continues:

CLZ08.NYM..Crude Oil Dec 08....50.75 ...Down 2.87
...,,..(5.4%)



The big news was jobless numbers are uglier & uglier. Last week, jobless claims jumped 27K to 542K (much more than feared). The number of people on benefit rolls rose to 4MM, the highest number in 26 years.

Bush to Back Jobless-Benefit Extension as Claims Rise to Highest Since '92


Leading economic indicators fell 0.8%, worse than was expected, just another sign of being in a recession:

Congress was stunned yesterday to find out that the auto execs begging for more aid flew to the hearings in corp jets. Each company has its own fleet of jets for execs who have done such a crappy job of running their companies into the ground. More gov helps is now a lost cause. Meanwhile their sales have to be plummeting. Would you want to buy a car fearing the the car company may not be around next year?

This is a major test for the Dow, 8K. With all the gloomy news out there, it's going to take a lot for buyers to return & keep it above that line.

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