Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Stocks keep tumbling

Dow declined 276 near its session lows, sadly that kind of decline has become common recently. The daily range for the Dow has been settling back in the last few weeks to "only" 300 bringing a relative sense of calm. A few weeks ago, daily ranges were exceeding double that number. Decliners are over advancers 5-1 & NAZ is down 46. NAZ has been punished badly, the chart below for Wall Street darling Google tells that story well:


Google --- 4 years





S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX declined 8 to 171. I think Bloomberg TV, which monitors this index, said it's a 19 year low. Their site only shows a 5 year history, 5 years ago it was in 400+ territory. The Alerian MLP Index dropped 6¼ to 195½ taking it below the important 200 line of resistance, the Dow Jones REIT Index fell 5½ to 136 matching the prior yearly low reached a couple of weeks ago (which is really a 6 year low). But the VIX, Volatility index, is back up 4½ to 66 as fear is running higher.

Oil, down 2, is pretty much at a 3 year low:


CLZ08.NYMCrude Oil Dec 08...57.25 ....Down 2.08 (3.5%)


Whopper size financial problems drone on & the US Treasury has to come up with new rescue plans, but making it up as they go along is a tough way to handle it. OK, I don't have any better ideas in the horrible financial crisis they are trying to get us out of. Chaos in solving seemingly unsolvable problems is adding to selling pressure for stocks.

Paulson Scraps Plan to Buy Troubled Assets, Shifts Focus to Consumer Loans


Company news keeps coming & it's all dreary. BestBuy (BBY), down 1.43, guided EPS for 2008 sharply lower, down almost $1 from the guidance ONLY 2 months ago ($2.30-2.90 vs $3.25-3.40). Since the first 3 quarters are recorded, the negative guidance will come out of Q4 profits!

Best Buy Drops on Reduced Profit Forecast, `Seismic' Slowdown in Spending

Macy's reported a loss only half what was expected. After rallying in the first hour, it sold off sharply, taking below 9, or down 50% this year.


After the July 15 low, I was sorry that I missed a chance to get Bank of America (BAC) at just 18 with an enormous yield. Four months later the stock is back at 18 while the div has been halved. This is just one story, but it will be repeated many times as bleak days are ahead. Currently, bigger than Q3 retail sales reports coming in the next few days, is whether or not the gov will save GM & maybe Ford & Chrysler. Horrible days for auto companies is a worldwide problem. Last week Toyota (TM) said this will be their worst year in the last 15.

Dow is heading south fast. It looks like will have to test 8K & probably very soon.

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