Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Late day rally lifts Dow

Dow had a major rally in the last hour, from 8100 to 8425, maybe on hopes that auto makers will be bailed out again. Much of the gains came from : Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) & 3M (MMM). However decliners lead advancers 2-1 & NAZ was just about even.

Big Three Plead With Congress for $25B in Uphill Fight- AP

Meanwhile, oil was down 37 pennies. Times are tough for oil when even hijacking a tanker off Africa can't bring out buyers.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX was down "only" 1.26 to another multi year, the Alerian MLP Index dropped 3 to a new low (aside from the week prior to Columbus Day). Without the last hour 5 point rally, it would have been a lot worse. The Dow Jones REIT Index slipped 1 (again, even after rallying 6 in the last hour) to another multi year low. In the last hour, prices got too low so bargain hunters were attracted. In addition to all the macro economic problems, tax loss selling & selling by funds to meet redemptions are taking their toll. Meanwhile the VIX Index, or fear index, was down 1.51 to 67.64, still near its recent record levels:

VIX --- 2 months




The annualized yield on the 90 day Treasury bill is only 11 basis points. To buy a Treasury promise to prepay $100 in 90 days, it costs $100 less 3 pennies. The 10 year Treasury bond has a yield of only 3.52%. Those are places frightened money is going.

The auto makers are testifying before congress pleading for more aid beyond the $25B they have already been granted to retool for more fuel efficient cars.

Late day rallies are always suspicious, especially in these times. Tomorrow's a new day, let's see what it brings.

As a note, Websense is blocking my picture on the right (along with many others). This may vary from one computer to the next, hopefully Google will get after them & soon!

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