Monday, February 23, 2009

Dow descends to 12 year lows

Damage done to the Dow, representing all stocks, is unbelievable. YTD the Dow is already down over 1600 or 19% & down almost 50% from its peak a little over a year ago. Today, Dow dropped 250 on more dreary news with only promises of help. Decliners were over advancers 6-1 & NAZ dropped 53.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 29 years





S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX dropped 3 to 96. I guess it could have been worse. The bulls would say, at least banks didn't sell off even more. General Electric (GE) has an 8 handle with a yield of 14%, as it's considered just another big bank in trouble.

Following a very bad week, the Alerian MLP Index dropped 8½ today (one of its worst days ever) to the 176s, taking it back close to the starting point this year. At the lower value, its yield is near 12%. REITs & junk bond funds also sold off. In the meantime VIX jumped 3 to 52 on increased fears.


Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




In commodities, oil sold off badly while gold slipped a little taking it just below 1000 an ounce. It's easy to see where frightened money has been going.

CLJ09.NYM..Crude Oil Apr 09..38.07 ..Down 1.96
......(4.90%)


ZGG09.CBTGold 100 oz. Feb 09995.20 ..Down 5.20
......(0.52%)



The President gave a speech, asserting that he is against waste. Unfortunately, there is no dept of waste which can be wiped out with a stroke of the pen. Eliminating waste means the gov has to stop giving money to groups & lay off gov workers. When that happens waste only applies to "other" programs, never mine. We'll see. He is going to release $15B to help states with Medicaid plans. Unemployment benefits will be expanded, but that gets touchy when it becomes more inclusive. When he gave the speech, Dow was down 140. After the speech, it was down 200.


Below is an article from the Wall Street Journal explaining that the recession has expanded to virtually all areas of the economy. Since the bear market began a little over a year ago, the top contributors to the Dow's decline are:

JP Morgan (JPM)
Caterpillar (CAT)
3M (MMM)
United Technologies (UTX)
Chevron (CVX)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
AIG is far from being repaired. They are expected to report a $60B loss meaning they'll need even more money. Their reach is so vast that the thought of letting them fail is not an issue.

AIG Seeks Further Government Aid, May Have $60 Billion Loss, CNBC Reports


It feels like the entire economic system is coming unglued & nobody knows how to fix it. Major averages are selling at 12 year lows. Anybody who missed an opportunity to buy a stock 5, 10, whatever years ago can probably buy it today at a cheaper price.

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