Friday, February 20, 2009

Weekly decline for the Dow - almost 500

Dow down 100, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ down only 1. The Dow dropped every day this week, bringing the total decline to almost 500. This follows the massive stimulus & other packages announced.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX rebounded from the lows, ending with loss of only 1. Still dreary. The Alerian MLP Index came off its lows, closing at 185 down 6. REITs & junk bonds saw buying later in the day but the VIX closed up 2 to 49.


Sen Dodd was tossing around ideas about nationalizing banks to help them get thru this mess. Good boy, good boy!! He mentioned Citigroup (C) & Bank of America (BAC). It's easy to see why even the biggest banks are heading for zero.


Dodd Says Short-Term Bank Nationalization Might Be Needed as Shares Slide


R. Allen Stanford has been apprehended & now we know Madoff has no records for his businesses. These 2 multi $B messes give the securities business a black eye at a time when it hurts badly by inhibiting future buying decisions.


Madoff Left No Trace of Buying Securities for Up to 13 Years, Trustee Says

Stanford Found Top Talent in Mississippi, Near Elvis Birthplace


Bloomberg TV had an article on divs, but I can't find it on their website. Basically it said that Q4 divs were cut by something like $16B & in this qtr, the cuts are already more. With layoffs, salary cuts, bonuses eliminated, etc., more cuts are coming.

Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock I like, has to be considered vulnerable. Earnings going forward don't look good:

2008... 5.66.........Act
2009....1.50-3.50..Est
2010....1.25-4.00..Est


Their div is clearly at risk& they are not alone. Many may have to cut. GE's div (the stock has a 9 handle) has to be considered at great risk.

The 8K line was very important for the Dow. The floor has become a ceiling & it looks like it may take a major effort to get back that high. At the lows today, Dow was at levels not seen in 12 years. Grrr!

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