Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Dow plunges 243

Stocks sold off sharply following the leads of Asian & European markets in the last 2 days. Dow is down 243, decliners ahead of advancers a very big 9-1 & NAZ fell 30. It's hard to shake worries about a very weak global economy not to mention the stimulus package, which is being signed today, is not selling well.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX led the markets, down 8, nearing the 108 low of Nov. Bank of America is down to 5. The outlook for financials (& the markets) is bleak.


Value
110.42
Change
-7.56
% Change-
6.4%


In this terrible market, everything is getting taken down. The Alerian MLP Index dropped a very large 5, returning the index back to 200 which has served as a ceiling then a floor in recent weeks. It's being tested again. REITs & junk bonds were weak but VIX shot up 6 (2nd chart below), heading for the 57 peak achieved last month. This is another sign that fears keep growing.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks





VIX --- 2 weeks





Oil sinks on greater concerns about the global economic slowdown. Generally lower prices are good for the economy, but this time it has a strong bearish tone.

CLH09.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 09...35.10 Down 2.41
....(6.42%)



General Motors (GM) & Chrysler have to explain to Congress the progress they've made in getting squared away. The unions & bondholders are playing tough, but the Dems are in power & they will give the autos a little more time. But even the Dems will run out of patience, shortly.

In the midst of all this gloom, there is some good news (well sort of). Wal-Mart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported their version of good news. Q4 earnings were down 7% from prior year, hurt by the stronger dollar & a charges on a lawsuit. WMT toned down Q1 EPS guidance, it will be a little under forecasts. That didn't keep buyers away, the stock rose 1.45 in a down market.


There are growing worries, among many, that the whopper sized US bailout plan which was done in a hurry & then rushed thru Congress, reeks of sloppiness. Much of the money for the recovery won't be used until next year. President Obama's negative tone last week about the economy is hurting markets this week. Dow is only 100 above the Nov low, it's getting tested. Others who watch the S&P 500 consider 800 an important floor. Right now it's under that by 4.

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