Thursday, February 5, 2009

Hopes for another bank bailout lifts stocks

Dow advanced 106 taking it back over the 8K line, advancers ahead of decliners almost 2-1 & NAZ gained 31. Dow was led higher by the oils (Chevron (CVX) & Exxon (XOM)), oversold Caterpillar (CAT) plus Wal-Mart (WMT) had a good day. Oil was up 60¢, hanging tough just above 40, but remaining in the low region it has become accustomed to lately.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value
121.51
Change
1.63
% Change
1.4%



State Street Corp (STT) reported an enormous loss & is cutting about everything, including the div. It used to be a Dividend Aristocrat, but after reducing the quarterly div to one penny it will be deleted, probably at year's end, the traditional time when S&P reviews new members & drops ones that don't qualify. The graph below shows the huge gap down last month when they pre-announced gloomy times ahead:


State Street Corp --- 3 months




State Street Cuts Dividend, Bonuses to Lift Capital


US Bancorp (USB) is the only remaining bank in the Dividend Aristocrat group. Recently it ran TV ads to show financial strength which included a track record of paying a div every year since the Civil War. I have not seen that ad in the last few weeks. Their coverage is thin at best, but they will try to maintain it. Their 11+% yield implies that the market has doubts.

For the followers of the list, Masco (MAS), a building supplies company with a 50 track record of paying higher divs, will have to fight hard to remain in the group this year. Earnings are not covering the div, they are facing very tough choices about at least maintaining the div. The stock is under $8 at a 24 year low, yielding 12%!

The Alerian MLP Index is hanging tough, advancing to 201.66 today, trying for another leg up. REITs sold off while junk bonds funds were mixed.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




General Electric's (GE) CEO, at lunch was in a good mood, said that GE had plenty of money to pay the div. OK! Sellers were giving up an 11½% yield to bail out & receive money while he made that statement.

The Senate is working on the stimulus package (hate to use the word "plan"). Guessing about what it will or will not have doesn't make much sense, especially since it has to be blended with the House package. But it's hard not to be amazed how the Dow hangs in there, sitting on & staying above the 8K floor.

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