Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Stocks rise for no special reason

Markets were up today, not sure why. For the bulls, at least it brings the Dow a little higher above the 8K floor (all of 125 points). Dow gained 45, advancers over decliners 5-2, & NAZ had a good rise of 29. Tech has been attracting buyers this year. NAZ started the year at 1577, the recent rally has trimmed is YTD loss to only 31:


NAZ ---- YTD




Depressed banks were up, S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX gained 3½. Other high yield securities were little changed. The Alerian MLP Index was up pennies, hanging in at 201.


Economic news continues grim. Job losess in the private sector were less bad than feared. Private sector employers cut 522K jobs in Jan compared to a revised 659K jobs loss in Dec. These numbers continue grim indicating that the unemployment rate will shoot up to at least the 8% area. Any stimulus package will have little influence on this increase in the coming months.


Kraft (KFC), Dow stock, said Q4 profit fell 72% related to a restructuring program. Excluding extraordinary costs, KFC earned 43¢, a penny under analyst expectations. Company guidance for 2009 was reduced because of the stronger dollar & higher pension costs, stock down 2.10.

Time Warner (TWX) reported an ugly loss related to a $24B write-down of assets. Ex write-down, earnings were 23¢ per share (a nickel lower than last year). The stock slipped pennies. There will be even more company layoffs.


Economic pain is being felt all over the world. Panasonic, one of the largest companies in the world, reported their first loss in 6 years requiring them to layoff 15K employees.

The stimulus package is being debated in the Senate & it's becoming unsettling. In the House bill, Dems packed in every spending program they could imagine. The Senate is trying to cut back, but it's all political. So much for getting a package designed to help the economy. Many agree that much of this money could take too long to reach the economy for economic benefits in any recovery. While the Senate debates, stock markets have little incentive to go up.

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