Thursday, May 21, 2009

AAA credit worries dominate trading

Markets tumbled on the opening & never recovered. Dow dropped 130, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 32. Banks got off lightly in today's selling in stock markets & Treasury bonds:

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
157.81
Change
0.35

% Change
0.2%



Markets may have been spooked by the possibility that US could lose its AAA credit rating after the UK's credit rating was put on a watch list earlier today. Bill Gross, head of Pimco, said that was driving the selling.



The MLP Index slipped a couple to the 216s, they're entitled. The REIT index was even while junk bond funds were soft. Treasuries were weak, the 10 year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points to 3.35% (at the start of the year the yield was a record low, near 2.1%). Growing supply problems are nagging this market. The VIX, shot up 3.32 (8%) to 31.35, on growing fears in the markets.

Treasuries Fall After Fed’s Purchase of Debt as Supply Looms


Oil recovered a little in the PM, remaining near the 62 ceiling ahead of the important long driving weekend.

CLN09.NYM..Crude Oil Jul 09..60.97 ..Down 1.07
......(1.72%)




The United Auto Workers union announced it has a deal with General Motors (GM), however no details were given. Union members still have to approve the deal. GM is up a very big 47¢. However, GM still needs bondholders to swap at least 90% of their $27B in bonds for new stock. GM plans to close an additional 16 factories, costing 21K jobs,


Tim Geithner, Treasury Secretary, said the $700B financial rescue package can’t be used to aid municipalities & states to help solve budget problems. The biggest hurdle is that TARP is reserved for financial companies. California, I think they said the 6th biggest economy in the world, is rapidly running out of money because massive spending programs are not being supported by declining tax revenues. They are desperate for help.

Geithner Says TARP Can’t Help US States Solve Budget Crises



The last 6 months have been very good for the MLP Index (shown in the line). But Kinder Morgan (KMR, the stock equivalent), shown with the bar graph, continues to have a difficult time finding friends. Today KMR was up 21¢ to 41.62. They are the largest MLP, have raised $2B in financing during this period & are paying a record $4.20 (record) distribution to the unit holders. Why have they been left behind the MLP rally?


Kinder Morgan vs AMZ Index - 6 months





Dow spent Apr clinging to the 8K line, then broke thru. But in May it has been in a narrow trading range just above 8K. The Dow is down 250 from its high early yesterday morning.

Dow Jones Industrials ---- YTD

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