Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Markets meander, awaiting stress tests results

Dow spent most of the day in the red, but only slightly. It closed down 16, decliners were 20% ahead of advancers & NAZ dropped 9. Bank stocks needed a day of rest (maybe 2 when tomorrow is included) after the big day on Mon.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
155.52
Change
-1.92
% Change
-1.2%


The S&P 500 has been getting a lot of attention after breaking into the black for 2009. Today it slipped, but is still up a couple of pennies YTD. Below is a chart for SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which is purchased by those wanting to tie an investment directly to the S&P 500. Recovering money lost in 2009 is helpful but for those who bought during the last 10 years hoping to make money, they may still have a long way to go just to reach break even.

S&P 500 (SPY) ---- 1 decade





The Alerian MLP Index fell change after reaching almost a 6 month high yesterday. REITs were hit harder, dropping 5 to 132 while junk bond funds were generally weak. Oil continued soft, down about 50¢.

Chrysler bankruptcy is beginning by droning on for a second day. If this is any indication, emerging from bankruptcy may be a drawn out affair in which nobody wins. This may also serve as a warm up for GM next month.


The last 5 months have been good to MLPs. Kinder Morgan, the KMR stock equivalent is shown below, had been tracking the index until Apr. The index (line) had has been doing quite well, even better than the stock market averages. KMR, however, has been stuck in the mud staying near the 41s during the last 6 weeks. Today KMR fell 52¢ to 40.57. Kinder Morgan is the largest MLP with an excellent long term record (13 years is a long run for this group) of growth.

TheStreet.com raised their rating for KMP (the units) from hold to buy last month after reviewing the Q1 report. Their reasoning was, "We've upgraded energy transportation and storage company Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) from hold to buy, driven by its expanding profit margins over time. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had lackluster performance in the stock itself." But I'm nervous about their weak performance in Q1 & worry that it may be signal more problems for them (& the industry) going forward.

Kinder Morgan (KMR) --- 6 months




Markets are growing nervous about the outcome of the bank stress tests, it looks like most of the 19 banks will need more capital. More nervousness should dominate trading tonight in Asia & in tomorrow's markets.

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