Thursday, May 7, 2009

Profit taking after gains this week

Dow began the day higher, but sank quickly. Maybe this is a case of buy on the rumor & sell on the news (stress tests). Dow is down 60, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ fell 30. Banks were mixed, although Bank of America (BAC) was up 1½ ahead of the gov stress test report telling them to raise another $34B.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
165.21
Change
-2.93
% Change
-1.7%


The Alerian MLP Index dropped 1½ to 213 (& down from 216 on this morning's opening). The Dow Jones REIT Index was down 5 but junk bonds were up while the yield on the 10 year Treasury rose to 3.24% (maybe a delayed reaction to yesterday's sales of Treasury debt) on lower bonds prices.

Oil continues its winning ways. Just a few months ago it was sub 40. Last night an oil trader said the next technical level oil is shooting for is 62.

CLM09.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 09...57.66 ...Up 1.32
.......(2.3%)


New applications for jobless benefits dropped to the a 14 week low, another sign that the wave of layoffs has peaked.The number of laid off workers applying for benefits fell to 601K last week, better than a rise of 635K expected. The 4 week moving average of jobless claims totaled 624K, a decrease of more than 30K from the high in early Apr (Goldman Sachs economists have said a decline of 30-40K in the 4 week average is needed to signal a peak). However, the total number receiving jobless benefits climbed to 6.35 million, the 14th straight record.

U.S. Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Fall to Lowest Level in Three Months


Below are 2 different views of what to expect after the stress tests results are announced. The Treasury Sec thinks they will be a "reassuring" picture of a U.S. banking system able to withstand whatever stresses the recession may inflict on it once a handful of institutions add to their capital base." I'm worried that the same regulators who were being paid with tax dollars are now the ones who well tell us how to fix the credit mess, not reassuring to me.

Fed's Stress Test Results for Banks `Reassuring,' Show No Insolvency Risk

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