Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Retail sales decline in April drags down markets

Increased selling took the Dow down 154, declines over advancers 4-1 & NAZ sold off 36. Banks are taking it on the chin again:


.name.....price.......% change..................volume
BAC
11.5608Down 0.6992Down 5.70%125,244,897
C
3.5501Down 0.1099Down 3.00%140,087,430
JPM
34.63Down 0.73Down 2.06%22,606,839
WFC
24.83Down 0.87Down 3.39%39,507,566
GS
131.29Down 4.12Down 3.04%5,396,505


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
155.67
Change
-5.19
% Change
-3.2%


Selling is reaching the high yield sector. The Alerian MLP Index is down 4, the REIT index dropped 5 & junk bonds are weak. Oil remains strong ahead of today's weekly supply report.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 months





CLM09.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 09...59.42 ...Up 0.57
.......(1.0%)
Fu


Retailers saw sales fall for a second straight month in Apr. Sales were hurt by sluggish gasoline & electronic goods purchases. The Commerce Dept said retail sales slipped 0.4% after a revised 1.3% decline in Mar. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, sales dipped 0.5%, compared to a 1.2% decline in the prior month. Dismal economic numbers, especially high unemployment numbers, are biting hard.

Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Drop as Unemployment Cuts Into Purchases


The Federal Reserve considers the recent increase in Treasury yields as reflective of a better economic outlook instead of a signal it needs to step up purchases of gov debt. They claim it’s too early to judge the effectiveness of the Fed’s $300B plan to buy Treasuries even after 10-year yields climbed 0.65% (today's yield slipped to 3.11%). Their goal is to stimulate private lending, rather than target government-bond rates. Others predict the rise in yields will prompt the FED to announce an increase in the size of the program, maybe next month.

Treasury Yield Jump Is Sign of Better Economic Outlook, Fed Officials Say


The gov is contemplating a major overhaul of compensation practices for financial services firms, beyond the banks. Policymakers want to see that pay is more closely linked to performance. Changes may involve expanding the regulatory powers of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the same commission that was watching Bernie Madoff) & Federal Reserve to obtain more information regarding compensation. Any overhaul is likely to include new rules for financial firms (hedge funds, private equity firms, etc.) that never accepted money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). This could also mean greater oversight on compensation for banks seeking to return TARP money in an effort to avoid new strings attached to their pay packages. More gov meddling is not associated with higher markets!


Higher oil prices & Treasury bond yields which raise mortgage rates are worrying markets.

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