Friday, May 1, 2009

Stocks start May quietly

Dow gained 44, advancers over decliners 3-2 but NAZ was essentially even. Banks were typically down 1-2%, the index suffered:

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
142.96
Change
-2.44
% Change
-1.7%


The Alerian MLP Index was up 2.48 to 212 but the Dow Jones REIT Index fell 5 to the 126s, holding up well on the div cut discussed below. Junk bond funds are up again, the Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was up 30¢ to 33.

Oil had a good day folowing stock markets gains:
CLM09.NYM..Crude Oil Jun 09..52.74 ..Up 1.62
......(3.17%)


After report better than expected FFO (funds from operations), Simon Property (SPG), the largest REIT, lowered guidance for 2009 from around 6.40-6.60 per share to 6.05-6.20. Accordingly, they are reducing the quarterly div from 90¢ to 60¢ for the remainder of the year. When conditions improve, they will restore the old rate. The stock was down 4.14 to 47.46 but has almost doubled from the severely depressed price of 25 in Mar. This news follows the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties last month. Tough times for REITs are starting to bite hard.


Simon Property ---- YTD




Dow has been rising in the last 4 weeks, but only modestly. It closed Apr 3 at 8017, had a few modest weekly gains bringing it to today's close of 8212. Next week, the results form the stress tests for the top 19 banks will be released on Thurs. There will be a lot of nail biting trying to guess which banks will really be under stress. Chrysler started is 1-2 month journey (if all goes well) before it can emerge from bankruptcy. The markets have plenty of challenges after their recent sharp rise. Maybe the the winner at the Kentucky Derby tomorrow will give clues about market direction.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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