Thursday, September 3, 2009

Dow has first advance in 5 days

Dow started higher & stayed in the black for most of the day, but just barely until a late day rally made the gain noticeable. Dow rose 63, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ was up 16. S&P 500 made it above 1K again but NAZ remained under 2K.

Banks had a very good day after retreating early in the week from the highs last Fri. The monster, low priced flyers had another good day. AIG (AIG) was up 3.80 (10%), Fannie Mae (FNM) gained 27¢ & Citigroup was up 21¢. This is speculation which is not good for the markets.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
189.40
Change
4.24
% Change
2.3%


S5FINL:IND




Citigroup --- 2 months




AIG --- 2 months




Fannie Mae --- 2 months





MLPs rebounded, the Alerian MLP Index gained 2.06 to the 235s while the Dow Jones REIT Index was up 2.74. Junk bonds also did well as Treasuries were sold. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 3 basis points to 3.33% remaining near the lows in recent months. Oil was down pennies at 68.

Alerian MLP Index --- 6 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 6 months





Unemployment benefits are expected to run out by year end for more than 1.3M. The National Employment Law Project said more than 402K will exhaust unemployment benefits by the end of Sep & that will more than triple by Dec 31. This is another reminder that high & growing unemployment can damage any economic recovery.



The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses rose to 48.4 in Aug (the highest level in 11 months) from 46.4 in Jul. Readings below 50 signal contraction in industries that account for 90% of the US economy. Efforts to unlock credit & gov measures including tax incentives for first-time home buyers are reviving demand helping the economy grow this quarter.

Service Industries in U.S. Contract at a Slower Pace as Recession Recedes



Economic data continues to be mixed, giving bull or bears the kind of signals that want to see. The strong finish (shown in the Bigcharts widget on the right) could bring out more bulls tomorrow. But going into a 3 day weekend, it's always tricky trying to guess how traders want to position themselves on Fri PM.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 6 months

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