Thursday, September 17, 2009

Mixed markets after another dreary jobless report

Dow began the day higher & remained in the black for ½ of the day. Then it slipped & was under water for the rest of the day, but never far from break even. Dow was down 7, decliners were barely ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 6 (hurt by heavyweight Oracle, ORCL, reporting mediocre earnings). The S&P 500, (down 3 today), as almost everywhere else, has been having a stellar Sep, proving it's payback time for last Sep.

S&P 500 --- 2 weeks





Bank stocks also paused at their yearly highs.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
204.07
Change
-0.76
% Change
-0.4%






MLPs & REITs have charts about as pretty as they come & this is coming off yearly highs or near yearly highs. Today they are catching their breaths. The MLP index fell 2¼ & the REIT Index slipped 1¼. Junk bond funds slipped from their yearly high levels. As expected, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 7 basis points to 3.39% (resulting from higher bond prices).

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil ended flatish after AM gains & gold was down all of 3, we can call that flatish.


Below are charts for 4 Dow stocks, all Dividend Aristocrats. Each one has a drab performance in the last year resulting from their defensive nature. They absorbed punishment pretty well when markets were plunging & have also received only modest support in the recovery. Wal-Mart (WMT), Procter & Gamble (PG), McDonalds (MCD) & Coca Cola (KO) are good prospective investments, quality stocks left behind this year.

Wal-Mart --- 1 year




P&G --- 1 year




McDonalds --- 1 year




Coca Cola --- 1 year




Claims for unemployment insurance declined to a lower-than-expected 545K last week from 557K in the prior week, the lowest reading in 2 months. Analysts expected claims to rise to 555K from a previously reported count of 550K. Continued claims of those still on jobless aid increased by 129K to 6.23M in the week ending Sept 5, the largest one week gain in 3 months. The 4-week moving average for new claims fell 9K to 563K. These figures are more of the same news which has become routine, better than the awful prior weeks. However jobless claims continue at very troublesome levels.

US Initial Jobless Claims Fell to 545,000 Last Week


Housing starts & the Philadelphia Factory Index each rose, more signals that the economy is bottoming. But that concept is not being debated. The difference of opinion revolves around how quickly the economy will recover. Housing, in particular, remains deep in the dumps. The auto business needs a lot of help while unemployment drags on from bad to worse. The latest weekly jobless numbers are a reminder of how hard the recession is affecting so many.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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