Friday, September 11, 2009

The winning streak for stocks ends

Markets tried & tried but couldn't continue their winning ways. However averages remain within a whisper of their 2009 year highs. Dow fell 22, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ was off 3. Banks sold off.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
195.09
Change
-1.62
% Change
-0.8%


The Alerian MLP Index was up 2¼ into the 245s, still under its 252 yearly high but getting closer. Their 6 month chart is very impressive as is the case for most charts. The Dow Jones REIT Index slipped a fraction remaining within a couple of its recent high. Junk bond funds were higher, reducing their yield spreads over the 10-year Treasury bond (most premiums are well below 1000 basis points). The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond bounced back to even for the day at 3.34%.

Alerian MLP index --- 6 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 6 months





Oil stalled out after having a nice week, it's back below 70 again. Gold however wants to move higher to new peaks. The chart for its ETF is shown below & the bulls are in charge of this market. Inflation fears & the weak dollar are behind is rise, neither factor is expected to weaken soon.

CLV09.NYM..Crude Oil Oct 09..69.31 ..Down 2.63
.......(3.7%)


GCU09.CMX..Gold Sep 09..1,007.20 ..Up 11.80
.......(1.2%)


GLD (ETF) --- 2 years




The federal deficit hit a record $1.38T (that's T as in trillion) in the first 11 months ending Aug 31 of the current fiscal year. The gov is forecasting the deficit for the entire fiscal year will be $1.58T, down from an earlier estimate of $1.84T. China has become the biggest creditor to the US, have to hope they keep buying Treasury debt. They have expressed concerns about big deficits. Hmmm!


The 6 month chart for the Dow is about the best it has ever looked for that period. In its latest streak (5 days) it advanced another 350 (4%). A lousy housing markets, weak dollar, gold hitting new highs & unemployment going from bad to worse have not hurt this market. We're almost ½ way thru terrible Sep. Let's see what next week brings.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 6 months

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