Dow is shooting for 10,000

There is nothing out there to stop climbing markets. Dow was up 118 to 9791 (closing at its highs) & wants to cross over 10K (again). This time, it could come this week. Advancers were 4-1 over decliners & NAZ was up 30 (up an amazing 34% this year).

Nasdaq --- YTD





Banks continue to lead markets higher. The Financial Index is back to levels not seen since the start of Nov. A daily change of 5 is big, 10 is huge. This was a very good day.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 204.83

Change 6.72

% Change 3.4%

The Alerian MLP index rose 3¾ taking it to the 251s, pennies from the 2009 high last month. The Dow Jones REIT Index was up a very big 7 taking it to its highest level since last Oct. Junk bond funds were strong, many have returned to levels around the Lehman collapse one year ago. With strength in the stock markets, Treasuries pulled back modestly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was up 2 basis points to 3.47%. Risk is welcome on all fronts. The VIX, volatility index, was little changed in the high 23s. By way off comparison, 20 had been considered a pretty high value. But last year during the height of the credit crunch, it spiked into the 80s. While the VIX closed up pennies, it remains essentially at its 12 month low signaling markets are willing to accept a lot of risk.

VIX Poised for Lowest Close Since September 2008

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil is making another attempt to reach a 2009 high (above 75). And gold continues to set new records. I can't get over how gold soars. Some investors are investing in their risk averse beliefs while stocks set new interim highs.

CLV09.NYM

..Crude Oil Oct 09

..72.30

.. 1.37 ......(1.9%)

GCU09.CMX

..Gold Sep 09..

1,018.90

.. 13.90 .......(1.4%)

The National Association of Home Builders confidence index climbed to 19 in Sep, the highest level since May 2008 & up from 18 in Aug. However it remains at bleak levels, a reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor. The gauge reached a record low of 8 in Jan & averaged 16 in 2008. Lower prices & gov tax credits for first-time buyers helped home sales steady in recent months. Even so, job losses & tight credit may restrain the market’s turnaround. Home sales have been helped by the $8K tax credit for first-time home buyers due to expire Dec 1. Home builders are lobbying congress to extend & expand the program to all buyers, but it's a political "hot potato."

US Builder Confidence Rises to Highest Level Since May 2008


Chrysler reported that Sep sales are off 19% following the end of the clunkers program. They believe sales declines are common for their competitors. The main problems is that dealer inventories are very low & it may take 6 months to restock their lots.


The picture of the Dow shown below shows Sep is not living up to its reputation of being the worst month of the year. It began the month at 9496, just below its high for 2009. Already its up another 300 (another 3%).


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks