Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Stocks and commodites rise

Global markets were higher on expectations of a strong recovery from the worldwide recession. Dow gained 46 taking (but slipping a tad in the last hour), advancers ahead of decliners almost 3-1 & NAZ was up 12. Bank stocks charged ahead, the the Financial Index needs another 6 points for a new 2009 high.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
192.44
Change
1.47
% Change
0.8%


The high yield sectors are doing well. The Alerian MLP Index went up 1½ to the 239s while the Dow Jones REIT Index shot up almost 3. Junk bond funds were higher & the Treasuries were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was flat at 3.45%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 1 month





Commodities are strong led by gold which went above the magic price of 1K per ounce. 1K has been a barrier for gold, now it will try to break thru again. As a competitive investment for stocks, its price movements are extremely important. If there is method behind the buying madness, gold is being bought on fears about how central banks will untangle from the stimulus packages when they are no longer needed. The betting is they will err, bringing higher rates of inflation.

CLV09.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 09...70.49...Up 2.47
.......(3.6%)


GCU09.CMX...Gold Sep 09...1,005.50 ...Up 10.60
.......(1.1%)



GLD (ETF) --- 2 years




Kraft (KFT), a new Dow stock, launched a bid with cash & Kraft shares to buy Cadbury, a British group, worth almost $17B. Cadbury's management is expected to mount an aggressive defense, but options are limited, especially at a time when major acquisitions are few & far between. Bets are KFT will come in with a higher price to win approval of shareholders. Cadbury shares were up 40% in the last 2 days. KFT fell 1.34 today on the news & yields 4+%.

Cadbury May Fetch $21 Billion If Nestle, Hershey Top Kraft Food's Approach


Kraft --- 1 year




Enthusiasm is strong once again. Nothing like a major acquisition to bring buyers back into the markets, especially when there has been an absence recently of such buyouts. Major stock market averages are near highs & want to go higher. Of course, gold is also near its highs & fears could take it to new record levels. This is a major disconnect which will have to be worked out.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month

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