Friday, September 25, 2009

Markets hesitate on lackluster economic data

Stocks can't decide which way to go, so they are hanging around their 2009 high levels. Dow is down 12, decliners 20% ahead of advancers & NAZ is off 10. Banks slipped & the Financial Inderx is down 10 from its high a week ago.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
197.57
Change
-1.16
% Change
-0.6%


The charts below zero in on Q3 which is pretty much completed. MLPs ran into a siginicant ceiling around 250 two months ago. Today the index is up small change in the 247s, still trying to break thru 250. After a weaker start in the recovery period, REITs have performed well in Q3. In the last week, the index pulled back almost 10%, but rebounded about 2 today. Junk bond funds firmed a litte after pretty much trading sideways at their highs during the last 2 weeks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was essentially unchanged at 3.38% following a modest rally for Treasuries (bringing lower yields) this week.,

Alerian MLP Index --- 3 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 3 months




Oil prices ticked up, but are still in the 66s (low end of the recent trading range). Gold slipped again, down 10 to 988.


The G-20 (upgraded from the G-8 a few years ago) will give greater voice for China, India, Brazil, etc. now that the group has been expanded from 8 to 20. They will try to clamp down on excessive pay for bankers' bonuses (easy for them to say something & follow thru with little action). The main attention at the meeting is demanding Iran come clean on its nuclear ambitions (which has significant implications for the price of oil).


The Univ of Mich index of consumer sentiment increased to 73.5 in Sep, from 65.7 in August. The consumer-confidence index was forecasted to rise to only 70.5. Consumers clearly have a more upbeat assess of economic conditions despite growing unemployment. In a separate report from the Commerce Dept, orders for U.S. durable goods (meant to last several years) unexpectedly fell in Aug & new-home sales climbed to the highest level in almost a year as builders cut prices.

US Michigan Sentiment Index Rose to 73.5 This Month


On mixed economic data this should be a quiet Fri, with the more successful taking a long weekend.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months

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