Monday, November 9, 2009

Dow hits a 2009 high as gold tops $1100

Markets started strong & continued rising. Dow shot up 147, advancers over decliners by an impressive 5-1 & NAZ was up 29. Banks, as usual, are leading the way higher but the Financial Index remains stuck in its trading range.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
196.31
Change
3.86
% Change
2.0%


In this bullish market, the high yields are marching ahead. The Alerian MLP Index rose 3¼ to the 261s, nearing its recent 265 high. The storm in the Gulf is not bothering MLPs. The Dow Jones REIT Index is up 4½ but remains in its recent sideways trading range. Junk bond funds have nice gains after losing ground last week. Treasuries were only a little higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell only 2 basis points to 3.49%. The VIX is down to the 23s on easing fears.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks





Commodities are also having a solid up day. Oil is getting used to a new trading range where 75 has been reversed from the ceiling to the floor (heading back over 80). Gold has firmly gone thru the 1100 barrier, making it a new floor. Strength in gold is betting on an even weaker dollar & high inflation down the road.

CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09...79.18 ...Up 1.75
.......(2.3%)


GCX09.CMX...Gold Nov 09...1,105.80 ...Up 10.70
.......(1.0%)




The Group of 20 nations (G-20) agreed to maintain economic stimulus measures, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets. Benchmark interest rates of 0.1% in Japan & as low as zero in the US make the yen & dollar favored targets for investors seeking to fund carry trades when other trading partners raise interest rates. The U.S. & Japanese currencies fell against most of their major counterparts. The chart below shows how much the dollar has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies. Accommodating & very easy policies are what stock investors like to hear, but too much of that got us into the credit mess a couple of years ago. Gold reached a another new record! For those wanting to learn more about gold, there is a button for gold on the right.

Dollar Falls to 15-Month Low as G-20 Pledge Spurs Risk Demand

Dollar Index - 1 year





McDonald's (MCD), Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported monthly sales growth edged down in Oct in the US, only the 1/3 time the monthly figures hasn't climbed in 6½ years. But that weakness was offset by stronger growth globally. MCD rose 78¢. Oct sales for stores open at least 13 months edged down 0.1% in the US, partly due to strong year-ago comparisons when sales in stores open at least one year rose 5.3% in the US & 8.2% worldwide. Global sales in stores open at least one year rose 3.3%. Results matched McDonald's forecast last month.

McDonald’s October Sales Rise 3.3% on Europe, Asia


McDonald's --- 1 year





This is an odd feeling, we are back to the bull market for stocks & gold. That's not supposed to happen!

GLD (ETF) --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

1 comment:

Bobby said...

Yes, gold prices are a stumper with the bull stock market. New territory here.