Thursday, November 19, 2009

Markets slumps on weak economic data

Dow sold off 155, decliners over advancers 6-1 & NAZ tumbled 47. Banks which have been trading sideways for 3 months led the way down.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
196.96
Change
-4.44
% Change
-2.2%


The high yielders fell along with the markets. The Alerian MLP Index dropped 2¼ to the 262s, failing to top its 265 yearly high. The Dow Jones REIT Index fell 4 to 160, again not able to take out its 180 highs from 2 months ago. Junk bond funds were down along with the markets. Treasuries rose up modestly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 2 basis points to 3.34%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Selling in the markets is affecting commodities. Oil had been trying to break above 80 but that ceiling held, oil is pulling back. There is no listing for gold, still showing 1141.

CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09...78.44 ...Down 1.14
.......(1.4%)



OIL (ETF) --- 2 months






More than 14% of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind or in foreclosure by Sep 30, a record-high for the 9th straight qtr, a problem that could threaten the economic recovery. This adds to fears that the housing market & broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults as unemployment keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners falling behind on mortgages. 4M homeowners were either in foreclosure or at least 3 months behind on mortgage payments as of Sep 30, a lot of homes could be coming to the market next year. Fixed-rate loans made to so-called prime borrowers with good credit histories caused nearly 33% of new foreclosures in Q3, compared with 21% last year. Subprime loans with adjustable rates have fallen to 16% of new foreclosures from 35% a year earlier. More than 18% of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure. These figures are gloomy especially when combined with high unemployment dragging on.

FHA, Prime Mortgage Defaults Rise to Record Highs as U.S. Job Losses Mount


Foreclosures - 1 year




Foreclosures started - 1 year




The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment insurance was unchanged last week, remaining above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs. The first-time claims for jobless benefits were 505K, the same as the prior week's revised figure. A year ago, there were 533K claims. The 4-week average fell for the 11th straight week to 514K, the lowest level in almost a year. While the decline in claims is evidence that layoffs are decreasing, they would have to fall to about 425K for several weeks to signal that the economy is adding jobs. The number continuing to claim benefits dropped by 39K to 5.6M for the week ending Nov 7. The continuing claims figure does not include millions who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits (typically provided by states) & are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal gov.

US Initial Jobless Claims Unchanged at 505,000


Weekly jobless claims - 1 year





Dreary economic numbers on housing & employment are too much for the markets to handle. After 3 days of sideways trading Dow broke out, unfortunately to the downside.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks



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