Monday, November 16, 2009

Markets rise on higher retail sales

Dow rose 141, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ gained 31, on a very strong day for all markets. Banks are up, taking the Financial Index above 200 again.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
200.66
Change
3.61
% Change
1.8%


The Alerian MLP Index shot up 2½ to the 264s, 265 is the yearly high. The Dow Jones REIT Index is up 3½ to 174 & shooting for the 180 high reached 2 months ago. Junk bond funds are higher with all the enthusiasm in the markets. Even Treasuries are up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 3.39%, but still near 3½% where it's been for 5 months.

Alerain MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Commodities are also seeing excellent gains. Oil is trying to get over 80 again. But the big story is gold surging to another record high. The gold bulls talk about 2K gold, now they are getting more respect.

CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09...79.14 ...Up 2.79
.......(3.7%)


GCX09.CMX...Gold Nov 09...1,134.20 ...Up 18.10
.......(1.6%)




Retail sales rose a better than expected 1.4% in Oct due largely to a big rebound in auto sales. However, broader consumer spending (up only 0.2%) remains under pressure, raising questions about the durability of the recovery. The big swing in overall activity reflects the recent roller-coaster ride for auto sales, up in Aug then they plunged in Sep. Auto sales jumped 7.4%, recouping about half of the 14.3% drop in Sept. The Oct figures are running at an annual rate of 10.5M units. The 0.2% increase in retail sales excluding autos was down from a 0.4% rise in Sep & the weakest showing since Jul.

Retail Sales in U.S. Climb More Than Forecast as Automobile Demand Expands


% Change Retail Sales - 1 year





% Change Retail Sales x/autos - 1 year





This is turning out to be a good day which may be the beginning of a very good week. General Motors generated $3B in cash, some of it will be used to repay gov loans. Of continued worry is gold setting new records.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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