Friday, November 20, 2009

Market losses limited with late day buying

Markets bounced back late in the day. With monthly options expiring, it's always difficult to find meaning in this trading. Dow had been down 60 at its low but finished with a loss of 14, decliners led advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 11 (again, hurt by earnings news from tech heavyweight Dell). Banks lost ground, the Financial Index has been weak for the last couple of weeks.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value
196.20
Change
-1.13
% Change
-0.6%



The Alerian MLP Index & Dow Jones REIT Index were each off almost 1 point. Both have seen selling in the last week. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & continuing near their yearly high levels. The charts show, MLPs have done well in the last 2 months while REITs have had choppy trading & junk bonds have been fairly flat. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1 basis point to 3.36%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 months




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 months




Barclays Cap Hi Yld Bond - 2 months





Commodities firmed in the PM. Gold is heading back for its 1150 record reached this week.

CLZ09.NYM..Crude Oil Dec 09..76.90 ..Down 0.56
......(0.7%)



GCX09.CMX..Gold Nov 09..1,146.40 ..Up 5.00
......(0.4%)



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DR Horton (DHI), 2nd largest home builder, suffered its biggest stock price decline in the last year after reporting a Q4 loss that exceeded estimates & saying the housing outlook remains difficult. Sales sank to only $1B (down 44%), the number of completed sales dropped 31%. Orders rose 26%, the first gain in more than 3 years, but DHI didn’t project a recovery to profit for 2010. "The thing that drives our business the most is job creation," said CEO Donald Tomnitz. "If we look at the macro economic environment, it’s not good for us." The stock is up sharply form the lows one year ago but today the stock fell off a cliff, plunging 1.83 (15%). The chart shows that speculation about a recovery in housing early on has disappeared.

DR Horton Plunges as Fourth-Quarter Loss Exceeds Estimates

DR Horoton --- 1 year





Without a lot of news driving late day buying, it has to be attributed to those options guys evening out positions. But the news from Horton is a reminder that this recession, especially in the important housing industry, is not ending soon!

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months




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