Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Markets fluctuate near 2009 highs

Stocks were are trying to figure out where to go after yesterday's big gains. Dow is even, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ is down 5. Banks sold off.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
198.20
Change
-1.23
% Change
-0.6%


In what looks to be a lackluster day, high yields are weak. The Alerian MLP Index is down 1 to 260 & the Dow Jones REIT Index dropped 2+. Junk bond funds were up slightly. Treasuries were a little higher ahead of a record $25B auction for 10 year bonds this PM. The bond is firmer, with the yield down 3 basis points to 3.46%. Dealers worry the auction may be "challenging."


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil is up taking it back over 80. On this sluggish day gold is up fractionally, but still above 1100.

CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09..80.26 ...Up 0.83
.......(1.0%)


GCX09.CMX..Gold Nov 09...1,103.50 ...Up 2.70
.......(0.2%)



Home sales were up 11% in Q3 ahead of the expiration of the tax credit for first time buyers. These sales may have borrowed from future sales. But the median price fell 11% from last year. The foreclosure rate keeps climbing, almost 1M received notices in Q3. Overall, housing remains stuck in the mud.

US Home Sales Rose 11% in Third Quarter on Federal Tax Credit

US Homes Sales - 12 months




Foreclosure rate - 12 months




Presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks in San Francisco & Atlanta gave cautionary outlooks on the economy. Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, & Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned that rising unemployment could crimp consumers, thereby restraining the recovery. Yellen said, "In other words, our recovery is likely to feel like something well short of good times." Lockhart said "very slow net job gains" may occur "sometime next year." Troubles in the commercial real estate market & the plight of small businesses also will weigh on the recovery.


Fed Officials: Weak Recovery Won't Spur Jobs- AP


No significant news is expected today, other than the FED auction, which will probably make for a quiet time letting markets digest yesterday's big gains.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks


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