Thursday, November 5, 2009

Markets zoom on lower jobless claims

Stocks started strong & didn't look back. Dow is up 175, advancers over decliner 4-1 & NAZ is up 20. Nothing like a favorable jobless claims report to help stocks. Banks are up, but with a so-so rally.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
190.00
Change
1.4r6
% Change
0.8%


The Alerian MLP Index is up 1.70 to the 257s, pretty much range bound in the last 5 days. The Dow Jones REIT Index is up a more impressive 2.55 & has been range bound for a few months. Junk bond funds are mixed while the VIX dropped 1¾, taking it below 26 (& down a very big 5 this week). Fears have been easing after last week's spike up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is flat at 3.54% (the high end of its 2 months range).


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT index --- 2 weeks





There is good demand for oil, keeping it above 80. Gold, what is there to say? It just keeps going up. The main questions is whether it can conquer 1100 this week as gold buyers are thinking negative thoughts about inflation. Below is a link if want to learn more about trading gold.


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CLZ09.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 09...80.45 ...Up 0.05
.......(0.1%)

GCX09.CMX...Gold Nov 09...1,091.20 ...Up 4.50
.......(0.4%)




The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 10 months. This is viewed as evidence job cuts are easing as the economy slowly heals. But companies are reluctant to hire, the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.9% in Oct (reported tomorrow). First-time claims for jobless benefits fell 20K to 512K, lower than estimates of 523K. The 4-week average dropped to 523K, its 9th straight decline, & is 135K below the peak for the recession 7 months ago. However, initial claims remain well above 400K needed to signal job creation. Economists worry that growth will slow early next year as gov stimulus programs wind down, making many employers reluctant to hire. These numbers are less dismal, encouraging stock buyers.

Jobless Claims in US Decrease More Than Forecast


Initial Jobless Claims - 52 weeks




Receiving Jobless Benefits - 52 weeks







Hyatt Hotels (H), note the single letter symbol, sold 38M shares at $25, the high end of its target price range. The stock is up $2, an excellent market reception at a time when IPOs have been "iffy."


Hyatt Hotels --- 1 day




This is turning out to be a winner day for stocks. While making for pleasant reading, the jobless report is just a weekly report. Then tend to bob around, it's good not to read too much into it. Tomorrow is the big monthly one, at best it should be "not too bad." The successful Hyatt IPO is encouraging for the bulls.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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