Monday, March 22, 2010

Higher markets after health care reform passes

Dow is climbing trying to reach to a new 18 month high after the House passed the health care bill. Dow is up 36, advancers are slightly ahead of decliners after decliners had led advancers 2-1 in early trading & NAZ is up 13. It's difficult to believe but a health care rally is underway. Banks are joining in. Again after starting lower, buyers have brought the Financial Index into the black. Another couple points & it will be at a new 18 month high.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
211.64
Change
0.45
% Change
0.2%


Not sure if there is a connection between MLPs & health care reform, but the index sold off again today. It bounced off the lows resulting in only a 1+ loss to the 297s. The REIT index is up pocket change. Junk bond funds were a little lower but still at lofty levels with relatively modest yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond slipped a basis point to 3.67%, nothing going on here.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil has rebounded from early AM losses which brought it below 79. Gold is probably doing better, but that's nothing showing presently.

CLJ10.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 10...80.39 ...Down 0.29
.......(0.4%)


Gold...1,096.70__-10.90__-0.98




An interesting story from Bloomberg, the 2-year notes from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity. That's not supposed to be, the Treasuries are expected to yield less. Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) & Lowe’s (LOW) debt also has similar low yields. The last 3 are Dividend Aristocrats. This comparison brings into question the ability of the gov to retain its AAA credit rating which will come into greater question with the passage of the health care reform & its added costs.

Obama Paying More Than Buffett as Treasuries Show U.S. Losing AAA Stature


Below are charts for 4 Dividend Aristocrats which are health care providers. They're up about 50¢ each today but have had muted track records in the last 2 years. JNJ is a laggard with a 26¢ gain because its medical devices are viewed as losing out with the new health reform.


Abbott Labs --- 2 years




Eli Lilly --- 2 years




Johnson & Johnson --- 2 years




Merck --- 2 years










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This looks like it will be a "go figga" rally day. Dow is in a long run trading zone with an upper level of about 10.8K. If Dow can close at a new 2010 high, it may want to carry on above 11K.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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