Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Markets crawl ahead

Dow is up 16, advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 & NAZ is up a more impressive 19. Speculative issues & high yield securities are very strong. Also banks are finding favor with investors again. The Financial Index is having a good gain today as it nears the 211 recent high. Banks are helped by the unusual enthusiasm shown for AIG (AIG) discussed below.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
208.67
Change
3.07
% Change
1.5%


MLPs have taken off again. The MLP index is up almost 2 to the 303s & significantly ahead of the 285 starting point in 2010. The yield on the MLP index is below 7.1%, taking us back to Jun of 2008. The Dow Jones REIT Index is up 1½ to a new interim high. Interest in high yielders is helping junk bond funds as investors are willing to accept lower yields on these bonds. As expected, Treasuries sold off. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 4 basis points to 3.74% taking it to the high end of its range over the last year.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yield Index - 1 year





Oil & gold are going nowhere. At least the bulls can take comfort that they are not falling.

CLJ10.NYM..Crude Oil Apr 10..81.37...Down 0.10
.......(0.1%)

Gold...1,121.10__-1.20__-0.1%



The Commerce Dept reported that inventories at the wholesale level were reduced 0.2% in Jan following a 1% drop in Dec. Sales were up a solid 1.3%, the best showing since a 3.6% increase in Nov. Hopefully steady gains in sales will soon prompt a sustained rebound in inventory restocking implying increased factory production to provide support for a fledgling recovery. With the Jan drop in inventories, the ratio of inventories to sales dipped to a record low of 1.10, meaning it would take 1.10 months to deplete inventories at the wholesale level (using the Jan sales pace). That was the lowest point since the data series began in 1992. The Jan drop in inventories was a disappointment.

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Fell 0.2% in January, Sales Jump


Change in Inventories - 1 year






AIG is flying again as speculative juices are running high. Today it's up 3.40 to 36.18 (& up 11+ in just a few days). It's difficult to understand that kind of move especially when the popular averages have only had mild moves up. By way of comparison, JP Morgan (JPM), a Dow stock, has had a nice move shown below.


AIG --- 2 weeks




JP Morgan --- 2 weeks











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Risk is back in vogue taking stocks higher. Banks which had been shunned for months are leading the markets. I supposed bulls like to see that. There has been no dramatic news this week although the Senate is about to adopt a jobless/business aid bill aimed at helping the recovery. And the healthcare bill is out there with experts saying it's passage is too close to call. Either way this could be a big jolt to the markets.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks





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