Thursday, March 18, 2010

Markets pause to refresh

Dow gained 29, but decliners 15% ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 2 on another day with little going on. Banks are absorbing their recent run up, but the Financial Index still looks very healthy & strong after reaching new interim highs yesterday.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
213.17
Change
-0.57
% Change
-0.3%


The Alerian MLP Index fell 1¾ to the 303s, it's entitled to a little profit taking. But the REIT index was up a fraction in the 201s, new 18 month high territory. Junk bond funds were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1 basis point to 3.65%, hardly changed from levels in recent months.


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil is down slightly while gold is about as flat as it gets.

CLJ10.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 10...82.44 ...Down 0.49
.......(0.6%)

Gold...1,125.20__1.00__0.1%



The gauge of future economic activity rose 0.1% in Feb, suggesting slow economic growth this summer. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators had the smallest increase in 11 months but it matched expectations. In Jan, the index increased 0.3%. Only 4 of the index's 10 indicators increased in Feb. Harsh winter weather, which cut down on the hours factory employees worked, & turbulent stock markets weighed on the index last month.

Leading Indicators Have Smallest Gain in Year in Sign of Slower Expansion



The number requesting jobless benefits fell slightly last week for the 3rd straight time. But initial claims remain above levels that would signal net job gains. New claims for unemployment insurance fell 5K to 457K nearly matching estimates of 455K. The 4-week average of jobless claims dropped to 471K. Still, the average has risen by 30K since the start of this year raising concerns that persistent unemployment could weaken the recovery. The average number of weekly jobless claims remains above the 400-425K level that it must fall below before widespread new hiring is likely. More than 6M were on the extended benefit rolls for the week that ended Feb 27, the latest data available or about 300K more than in the previous week. The total number of people receiving benefits now tops 11.2M.

In a separate report, the department said consumer prices were flat in Feb as a rise in food prices was offset by a drop in gasoline & other energy costs. Excluding the volatile food & energy categories, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up just 0.1% last month.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Declined by 5,000 in Sign Labor Market Is Improving


Jobless claims - 1 year




CPI (core index) - 1 year






Photo: Bloomberg













The global economic recovery is broadening according to FedEx (FDX) as Asia continues to see strong growth & the US economy gains steam. FDX said US growth is being led by a strengthening manufacturing sector & is predicting GDP growth of about 3% for 2010, in line with other forecasts. However, they are concerned that the housing market could remain a problem. FDX reported FY Q3 profits more than doubled from a year earlier, the first year-over-year profit increase in 5 qtrs. They also raised the forecast for full-year earnings on expectations of "a continued modest recovery in the global economy." Q3 EPS was 76¢ compared with 31¢ a year earlier. Revenue rose 7% to $8.7B. For Q4, FedEx expects EPS of $1.17-$1.37. FDX fell 73¢ as good results didn't matched the highest forecasted numbers.

FedEx Falls After Earnings Climbed Less Than Expected


FedEx --- 2 years










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Economic news is muddled again. Numbers are good but not able to inspire buyers to bid up prices aggressively. Nancy Pelosi has decided to have a final vote on the health care package on Sun. Everybody agrees, the outcome is too close to call, although she must feel confident that she (along with the pres) can twist enough arms to get it passed. One way or the other, the vote could be a large mover for the markets next week. Meanwhile, Dow keeps crawling it s way up. The bulls would say that's better than slipping back down.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks






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