Lower commodity prices sink stocks on a witching day

After starting in the black, stocks fell & were not able to recover. The winning streak for the Dow came to an end as it fell 37, but it remains near its 18 month high. Decliners were over advancers 3-1 & NAZ lost 16. Banks were lower but the Financial Index has had an impressive run in the last few weeks (shown in the chart below).

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 211.19

Change -1.57

% Change -0.7%

Today was a major setback for MLPs, as the index fell 5¾ (a very big decline) taking it below 300. It had a difficult time cracking thru 300 & now it's proving hard to hold. The MLP index has had a few big sell-off days in the last few months which did little except provide buying opportunities for the savvy. Not sure how this one will work out. The Dow Jones REIT fell 2, taking it below the 200 level. Junk bond funds were mixed, still at lofty levels. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose almost 2 basis points to 3.69%. The graph for the last year shows it rising from the extraordinary low levels at the start of last year to the present sideways trading range from which it has hardly budged.

Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 years




10-Year Treasury Yield Index - 1 year





Oil had a bad day on what they call the stronger dollar, but it hasn't changed very much. The € is down from $1.37 to 1.35+ in the last week, hurt by the Greek situation dragging on with no sign of an end. The stronger dollar also hurt gold. But both oil & gold have maintained their support levels to the relief of their bulls.

CLJ10.NYM

..Crude Oil Apr 10

..80.63

.. 1.57 ......(1.9%)

Gold

...1,106.70

__-20.80__

-1.84

Here's a chart for JP Morgan (JPM), the quality bank in the Dow. It has had a choppy go of it in recent months but has shown a very nice gain lately (down 20¢ today). Other flyers like AIG (AIG) & Citi (C) had bigger gains for the risk takers.

JP Morgan --- 1 year






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With all the witches out there today, it's difficult to derive much meaning from the changes. We never know when fund managers here or there are adjusting (buying or selling) to even out a position. In the absence of other news, DC is center stage with the vote on the health care bill coming this weekend. Even the pres moved his Asian trip back a couple of months to twist a few more arms which may be needed since the Dems figure they are a couple votes light. This vote will move markets on Mon, but not sure how. Behind it is the banking bill. While it may be difficult to relate to India, their increase in interest rates hurt markets here. Matters were made worse by the thought that another rate hike is coming next month.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 years