Tuesday, March 9, 2010

The one year rally falters

Markets began the day higher, trying to set new highs for 2010. Dow is up 17, advancers over decliners by 15% (but high yielders are doing well) & NAZ is up 9 shooting for another 2010 high. Banks are also extending their month long winning streak.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
205.22
Change
0.18
% Change
0.1%


The Alerian MLP Index is up fractionally taking it over the 300 magic line. Everybody wants to see if it can hold to set a new high since late 2007. The Dow Jones REIT Index is also up fractionally taking it back to levels not when since Sep 2008 when it had its worst month in history. Junk bond funds are mixed but at or near their highest levels in roughly 2 years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell 1 basis point to 3.70%

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




Oil slipped but at 81+ still has following winds behind it. Gold isn't doing much.

CLJ10.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 10...81.38 ...Down 0.49
.......(0.6%)


Gold...1,117.70___-6.30___-0.6%



This is the one year anniversary of the market low last year. Dow is up an amazing 61%, not bad for a 3-5 year period. Based on past records if the bull market has made it this far, chances are that it will keep climbing. Of course, one thing we've learned from this recession is that old rules have been thrown out the window. Among those which have been cast aside is that high unemployment, the key to not having a strong recovery, could drone on for months & even years.



Looking at the chart for General Growth Properties (GGP), it's difficult to believe it still has to emerge from bankruptcy. Its largest security holders are willing to invest another $4B so debt holders can be paid in full. When companies emerge form bankruptcy, you don't see that very often. The stock is up 82¢ to 14.90, not a bad price for a bankrupt company stock. But this plan for new investment reinforces the underlying values of real estate, even during the worst period for real estate since the depression.

General Growth Investors Add $3.93 Billion to Plan


General Growth Properties --- 2 years












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Stock market can't find much reason to do anything. The Greek debt problem remains in limbo, but with a lot of good intentions. Healthcare reform may be passed with the potential to do damage to the economy between higher taxes & prolonging high unemployment rates. But stock markets are celebrating a 1 year run which is probably its best in history. Now it has to figure out what to do in the 2nd year of the rally.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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