Monday, March 1, 2010

Higher markets on corp buyouts

Stocks are having another good day. Dow is up 61, advancers over decliner better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 24. Bank stocks were weak, hurt by the earnings report from HSBC.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value
197.14
Change
-0.29
% Change
-0.1%


High yielders are hot again. The Alerian MLP Index is up 1½ taking it into the 296s & closer to Jan high of 300. The REIT index is up a fraction in the 181s. Junk bond funds gained while Treasuries sold off. The yield on the Treasury bond went up 3 basis points to 3.62%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 1 month




Oil is having another good day, going above 80 while gold slipped back a fraction. Oil has had a choppy year but pretty much stayed in the 75-80 range which corresponds to the prices in the chart below.

CLJ10.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 10...80.20 ...Up 0.54
.......(0.7%)


Gold...1,116.00___-2.90___-0.3%


OIL (ETF) --- YTD





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Personal spending jumped more than expected in Jan but incomes barely budged. Weak income growth could depress spending in the months ahead, a further drag on the fragile economic recovery. The Commerce Dept said that personal spending rose by 0.5% in Jan, slightly better than expected. But incomes edged up only 0.1%, significantly lower than the expected 0.4% gain. The income gain was the weakest in 4 months, raising more concerns about whether consumers will be able to support an economic rebound. An important consideration is households did not get the usual boost from the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security & other benefits. In Jan 2009, incomes rose at an annual rate of $41B because of the cost of living adjustment. Wages & salaries went up 0.4% in Jan, the most in 10 months, after increasing 0.1% the prior month.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises for Fourth Straight Month in Recovery Sign


Wages & salaries - 1 year





Prudential PLC, the largest insurer in England, will buy AIG's Asian life insurance unit for almost $36B. In general corp buyouts help all stock values. In this case the US gov owns 80% of AIG, so this money is of interest to all taxpayers. After selling off badly on Fri following a report on its latest loss, AIG shot up $1.53 to $26.30.


Prudential Plc Will Buy AIG Unit to Gain 20 Million Customers Across Asia


AIG --- YTD





HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, reported 2009 profit of $7.1B down from $9.3B in 2008 & falling short of analysts' expectations of $11.4 billion. Losses on loans increased 9% to $26½B. Massive losses in the US in the last 3 years stem from its purchase of Household Finance in 2003 which it regrets.





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Markets are feeling good after after a fairly decent Feb but are still lower YTD. The HSBC numbers were not encouraging. Personal spending & income numbers indicate the economic recovery keeps sputtering. The Greek debt problem keeps muddling along as Spain's problems are getting more attention. I'm not sure how long the bulls can sustain this rally.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months

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