Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Markets slip on lackluster earnings

Markets were under water all day, but not by much. Dow finished down 38, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ dropped 11. Banks were lower, taking the Financial Index down a peg.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value200.73One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change-2.27 (-1.1%)



MLPS have pretty much recovered the lost ground from last week. Today the index fell a ½ to 332, just 3 below recent highs. The REIT index fell 2 to 211 following an excellent day yesterday. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher. The VIX was up a fraction, still in the 22s & remaining near its 3 month lows. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 5 basis points to 2.91% while the annualized yield on the 2 year Treasury is at a record low, 53 basis points. That means an investor receives only $5.30 in annual interest on each $1000 note! The € reached another interim high of almost $1.32½.

Alerian MLP Index -- 2 months




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 2 months




VIX -- 2 months




10-Year Treasury Yld Index -- 2 months






Oil continued in demand taking it to yearly highs. Good for its bulls, but not so good for economic recoveries around the world. While gold was marking time, that won't always be the case. A link is provided below for those who want to learn more about investing in gold.

CLU10.NYM..Crude Oil Sep 10..82.45 ..Up 1.11
......(1.4%)

GCQ10.CMX..Gold Aug 10..1,185.60 ..Up 2.20
......(0.2%)

**Gold Super Cycle**
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52 Week High Friday Rule!
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GM July Sales Rise 5.4%, Trailing Analysts’ Estimates


Photo: Bloomberg

Most automakers posted higher US sales in Jul. After a sluggish Jun, sales rose slightly at GM & Chrysler while Ford (F) had flat sales. But foreign-based companies like Kia & Subaru posted bigger gains. Sales were boosted by easier credit & new versions of cars & trucks ranging from Jeeps to large family wagons. Summer promotions also helped. Credit is thawing, with auto loan approvals up for buyers in every tier. GM announced last month that it would buy AmeriCredit in an effort to expand loans to customers with poor credit & offer more leases. But the market is still vulnerable as the sales pace has been fitful, with month-to-month sales falling as often as they rose in the first 6 months of 2010. However when final sales figures are tallied, Jul could be one of the strongest sales months this year & better than last Jul when the Cash for Clunkers rebate program only helped for a few days.

Sales at GM rose 2.6% over Jun, helped by promotions to make room for 2011 models. Ford, which has enjoyed a strong 2010 so far, had flat sales compared to Jun but rose 3% over last year. Japan's Honda Motor sales rose 5% from Jun, but fell slightly from a year ago amid weaker demand for small cars that benefited from last year's Cash for Clunkers program. In addition, Hyundai sales rose 6% from Jun & climbed 19% from last Jul, Kia sales rose 11% from Jun & jumped 21% from Jul 2009, Subaru sales rose 11% compared with Jun & rose 10% from last year & Daimler sales slipped 5% from Jun but rose 7% over last year.

GM, Ford and Chrysler Sales All Lag Estimates



MasterCard (MA) profits in Q2 increased 31% as anemic consumer spending in the US was offset by strong intl growth. This topped expectations, but fell short of the 38% leap in operating income at Visa (V) last week. Worldwide purchasing volume rose 8% while US purchasing volume eked out a gain of less than 1%. CFO Martina Hund-Mejean said that card use was particularly strong in Latin America & Asia Pacific, which both saw double-digit growth rates. "Even in Europe," she said, "We do not see any significant impact on our numbers in terms of the Europeans not spending." EPS in Q2 rose to $3.49 compared with $2.67 last year ago as revenue increased 7% to $1.37B. The stock fell 1½ to 201.

MasterCard 2Q profit jumps 31 percent, tops view- AP


MasterCard --- 2 years






Another dreary days but stocks have following winds as shown in the chart below. While auto sales were sort of good they were nothing exceptional, another disappointment. Dow is up over 800 from its recent lows at the start of last month, so a pause is in order. However most indications suggest the recovery is sputtering. Unemployment continues to be a major drag. As bad as 9½% unemployment is, the real number is north of 16% when the ones who have given up looking & others who accepted menial jobs are included. The jobs report on Fri should also show the effects of laying off census workers as that's winding down. But MLPs continue to be the strongest group (other than Treasuries).


Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 months








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