Markets tumbles on gloomier outlook for global growth

Stocks sank at the opening & have not recovered. Dow is down 230, decliners over advancers better than 6-1 & NAZ dropped 66 (3%). Banks led the selling with a 5+ drop for the Financial Index. The index has been trading sideways for a year & is back in its lower region.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value	192.39
Change	-5.61 (-2.8%)

The Alerian MLP Index dropped a massive 8 to the the 317s & is down 18 this week. It's still up over 10% YTD, but it looks like this market was overbought. The REIT index dropped 4+ to 204. Junk bond funds sold off 1% while the VIX spiked up 3 to the 25s on increased fears. The € sank more than 2 pennies to $1.29+ on the gloomier outlook for worldwide business. However, Treasuries were red hot, taking their interest rates even lower.

U.S. 3-month		0.15%
U.S. 2-year		0.51%
U.S. 10-year		2.71%

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





The outlook for oil demand dimmed, bringing oil back below 80. That ceiling has held for more than a year. Gold rose on its safe haven qualities after the Federal Reserve said the US economy is slowing.

CLU10.NYM

...Crude Oil Sep 10

...78.70

... 1.55 .......(1.9%)

GCQ10.CMX

...Gold Aug 10

...1,205.50

... 9.30 .......(0.8%)

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The trade deficit widened 18.8% in Jun on a surge of consumer goods from China & other suppliers, suggesting Q2 economic growth was much weaker than previously thought. The monthly trade gap was $49.9B, the highest since Oct 2008, the Commerce Dept reported. The deficit was wider than any forecast & is likely to prompt analysts to ratchet down estimates of Q2 GDP growth. At the same time, imports from China soared to $32.9B, the highest since Oct 2008. The big jump in the U.S. trade deficit follows Chinese gov data that showed China's trade surplus surged to $28.7B in Jul, an 18-month high. This is one more more reminder that the US recovery is sputtering while Asian economies are doing much better.

U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens to $49.9 Billion in June



There was some good news today. Macy's (M) had an excellent qtr in Q2, boosted its profit outlook & increased its forecast for a key revenue measure as it takes market share from rivals . M posted EPS of 35¢ for the qtr ended Jul 31 which compares with 2¢ last year. Revenue rose 7.2% to $5.54B. In the qtr, revenue at stores opened at least a year increased 4.9%. "We believe our business is beginning to hit its stride after implementing significant structural and organizational changes over the past two years," Terry J. Lundgren, CEO, said. "While the economic environment remains uncertain, Macy's and Bloomingdale's have a terrific opportunity to continue to take market share and grow our business profitably." Based on strong revenue expectations, M boosted its full-year profit forecast to $1.85-$1.90 per share, above previous guidance of $1.75-$1.80 per share. The company expects revenue at stores opened at least a year to rise 3-3½%, resulting in a full-year increase of 4-4.2%. The stock gained 1.

• Macy's profit surges in the 2Q; boosts outlook- AP

Macy's --- 2 years





There is a lot of red today except for Treasuries & gold. The report on the trade deficit was significant, indicating how some areas are doing well. Dow looks to be heading back towards 10K.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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